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Hurlin.O =9 4ADVANCED FINANCE PROGRAM Macroconomie Approfondie "53,6,  Christophe Hurlin Universit d Orlans Laboratoire d Economie d Orlans LEO, UMRS CNRS 6221"\PJb     @La Dynamique Inflation  Chmage,  \Analyse Dynamique de Court Terme De la synthse noclassique aux anticipations rationnelles]P]l    Plan de la Prsentation(  Section 1. Le Modle Offre Globale / Demande Globale : une Analyse en Statique Comparative Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips : L quation Manquante de l Economie Keynsienne Section 3. La Boucle Prix  Salaires : l Indexation des Salaires et le NAIRU )$ 0 '    * Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips L quation Manquante de l Economie Keynsienne,Q"**.&b     -Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips Introduction$.!  En 1958, l conomiste no-zlandais A.W Phillips propose une estimation de la relation entre : - les variations du taux de salaire nominal - le taux de chmage observs en Grande Bretagne sur la priode 1861-1957. La Courbe de Phillips originelle `&B&   & -Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips Introduction$.! T Plus prcisment, sur la priode 1861-1913, il obtient une relation de la forme : o wt dsigne le logarithme du salaire nominal et ut le taux de chmage exprim en pourcentage. Phillips (1958) met en vidence une relation EMPIRIQUE dcroissante non linaire entre le taux de croissance du salaire nominal et le taux de chmage. TeBRB . .F&\   -Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips Introduction$.! \ Remarque 1 : On a une relation dcroissante non linaire entre le taux de croissance du salaire nominal et le taux de chmage. Plus le taux de chmage est lev, plus l'impact ngatif du taux de chmage sur l'accroissement du salaire sera faible. Remarque 2 : Il existe un taux de chmage not pour lequel le salaire nominal est constant \B F TB.M -Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips Introduction$.!  Pour simplifier l analyse, on considre une approximation linaire de la relation de Phillips autour de ce niveau ub. Proposition : On suppose l'existence d'une relation entre le taux de croissance des salaires nominaux et le taux de chmage de la forme suivante : o ub dsigne le taux de chmage compatible avec une invariance du salaire nominal. |W~BFF  %     -Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips Introduction$.!  Remarque 1 : Si le taux de chmage excde ub, le salaire nominal tend diminuer. Inversement, si le chmage est infrieur ce seuil, les salaires ont tendance augmenter Remarque 2 : Cette quation traduit une certaine rigidit du salaire nominal qui ne s'ajuste que progressivement aux dsquilibres observs sur le march du travail dont le chmage est la manifestation. F FBF&1  X -Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips Introduction$.!  Le salaire nominal ne s'ajuste pas pour quilibrer le march du travail chaque priode, mais il volue dans le temps en fonction de l'tat du march du travail. F  -Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips Introduction$.!  Consquence 1 : on suppose que le salaire est donc une variable prdtermine : il ne peut s'ajuster au cours d'une priode, mais peut voluer de priode en priode. Wt prdtermin ZZZZDFDD .   -Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips Introduction$.!  Consquence 2 : L existence de rigidits relles sur le march du travail justifie ainsi un taux de chmage naturel positif l'quilibre du march du travail : le niveau du salaire stationnaire ne permet pas d'quilibrer l'offre et la demande de travail. zDF H2u   -Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips Introduction$.!  Pourquoi cette simple observation empirique a-t-elle constitu le fondement de l analyse dynamique de la macroconomie moderne ? De la courbe de Phillips originelle la courbe de Phillips augment des anticipations& .8BD\         -Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips Introduction$.!  Plan de la Section 2 2.1. La relation prix  salaires : l quation manquante de la thorie keynsienne 2.2. La dynamique inflation chmage r{DDwDD  O!Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips $"!# 2.1. La Relation Prix - Salaires(!$ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,%f Ce que nous enseigne la courbe de Phillips c'est que les salaires s'ajustent progressivement pour rsorber les dsquilibres sur le march du travail. Intgrons cette relation dans un modle keynesien c est--dire un modle avec rigidit nominale o le salaire nominal est rigide (mais pas fixe) Le salaire nominal W fix en dbut de priode, dtermine le niveau de l'quilibre de l'conomie dans cette priode et en particulier le taux de chmage qui son tour dtermine le salaire de la priode suivante Ce qui induit une dynamique inflation  chmage P1.16   g ;ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,% C est donc l quation manquante de la thorie keynsienne2@@@ I <ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,% Question : quelle est la forme de la dynamique des prix et des salaires ainsi obtenue ? => La courbe de Phillips (par opposition la courbe de Phillips originelle) ou => La courbe de Phillips de Samuelson et Solow (1960) v Ru =ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,%3Considrons un modle AS-DS avec courbe de Phillips44.   >ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,%% La rsolution du modle se fait alors en deux tapes : 1- On dtermine l'quilibre macroconomique chaque priode en fonction du niveau de salaire nominal. 2- On dtermine ensuite l'volution de ces quilibres macroconomiques dans le temps en utilisant la courbe de Phillips originelle.287% ?ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,%: Pour un niveau de salaire nominal prdtermin, l quilibre (modle AS-DS) est dfini par : On en dduit l expression du taux de chmage l quilibre X; @E  F  @ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,%f Une fois que l'on a dtermin l'quilibre la date t pour un niveau prdtermin de salaire nominal, on dtermine l'volution de ces quilibres dans le temps en utilisant la courbe de Phillips originelle. On cherche dterminer l'quation dynamique du taux de chmage, qui nous permettra par la suite de dterminer l'quation dynamique de l'inflation PgZlg'0% g ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,%` On pose A l quilibre : On en dduit : 8 ZZ%Z18    ^ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,% Ainsi la variation de l'emploi d'quilibre est gal la diffrence entre la variation de la masse montaire et la variation du salaire En utilisant la courbe de Phillips, on obtient une relation dynamique :  _ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,% ---------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : Le chmage d'quilibre a une dynamique dcrite par l'quation de rcurrence d'ordre un : ----------------------------------------------------------------`AfA `ASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,% Cette quation de rcurrence dcrit l'volution au cours du temps du chmage d'quilibre Sa rsolution permet d'obtenir le niveau du chmage chaque priode, les autres grandeurs pouvant tre dtermines partir du niveau de chmage d'quilibre. Mais gnralement, on s intresse d avantage la dynamique de l inflation l[MNK AASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,%\Revenons au niveau gnral des prix l quilibre Ce qui correspond une inflation d quilibre telle que : Or, on a vu qu l quilibre : Donc on obtient finalement :  rASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,% ------------------------------------------------------------------ Rsultat : A l'quilibre, on obtient une relation inverse entre le taux de croissance des prix (l'inflation) et le taux de chmage analogue la relation entre taux de croissance des salaires et taux de chmage (courbe de Phillips originelle) : ------------------------------------------------------------------ VFF sASection 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.1. La relation prix - salaires$B!!,% Commentaire 1 : cette relation correspond la courbe de Phillips de Samuelson et Solow (1960) ou courbe de Phillips Commentaire 2 : C est prcisment cette relation qui fonde le dilemme  inflation chmage{\mL.   8 !Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips $"!+ 2.2. Analyse de la Dynamique du Chmage *), P :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;!P D Objectif : montrer que la courbe de Phillips (version Samuelson et Solow, 1960) implique un dilemme inflation chmage tant court terme qu long terme. b :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;!P  Long Terme Considrons l quation dynamique du chmage : A l tat stationnaire (long terme), le chmage est constant et vrifie : R 1L :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;!P  ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : Le niveau de taux de chmage l'quilibre stationnaire est gal : ----------------------------------------------------------------------- H t:Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;!P  Ainsi, le taux de chmage l'quilibre stationnaire ne correspond son niveau naturel que si le taux de croissance de la masse montaire est nul. Le taux de chmage naturel est donc un taux de chmage imputable uniquement aux imperfections structurelles du march du travail. *h  :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;!P  A long terme, les autorits montaires peuvent atteindre un taux de chmage infrieur ce taux naturel en faisant crotre la masse montaire un taux positif * :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;!P  ------------------------------------------------------------------ Consquence : dans la perspective de Samuelson et Solow (1960), la monnaie n est pas neutre, y compris long terme ------------------------------------------------------------------ GBG   E :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;!P  -> Les autorits montaires ont la possibilit d'influer le taux de chmage de long terme qui dpend du rythme de croissance des agrgats montaires -> Cependant, il existe un dilemme entre inflation et chmage : le surcrot d'activit provoque une augmentation des prix. Z~ "? :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;!P 0 En effet, long terme, le taux d'inflation long terme est uniquement dtermin par le taux de croissance de l'offre de monnaie : Implication de la thorie quantitative de la monnaie : vitesse de circulation constante, si la masse montaire crot de x% par an, les prix croissent aussi de x%   %m0 :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;!P @ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Rsultat : La courbe de Phillips implique l tat stationnaire (long terme) : On a donc un arbitrage long terme entre un niveau lev de chmage et un niveau faible d'inflation qui peut tre control par le taux de croissance de la masse montaire. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------26     ,:Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P Court Terme : Un arbitrage identique existe court terme. En effet, considrons l'quation dynamique du taux d'inflation : Sachant que On peut rcrire cette dynamique sous la forme : LpGnI :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P Court Terme -> Le taux d'inflation court terme est donc une fonction dcroissante de l'cart u-u* -> Si le taux de chmage excde son niveau d'quilibre de long terme, l'inflation est en dessous de sa valeur de long terme |U}.c   :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P  Conclusion Gnrale : la courbe de Phillips laisse penser que les politiques de rgulation de la demande agrge sont des instruments efficaces pour dterminer la combinaison optimale de chmage et d'inflation tant court terme qu' long terme.   :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P  Exemple : le cas d une politique montaire expansionniste Celle ci peut prendre deux formes : soit un choc permanent : modification du rythme de croissance m de la masse montaire soit un choc transitoire : variation transitoire de taux de croissance n`:da :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P  1er cas : choc permanent Supposons que les autorits augmentent de faon permanente le taux de croissance de l'offre de monnaie partir d'une certaine date T : h  :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P  Rsultat : Suite l'augmentation permanente du taux de croissance de l'offre de monnaie, le taux de chmage long terme dcrot : tandis que le taux d'inflation long terme augmente : p; x9 :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P PComment passe-t-on d une situation l autre ? - le salaire nominal la date T tant fix en T-1, si les prix augmentent la date T, le salaire rel diminue. - la baisse du salaire rel conduit une augmentation de la demande de travail et donc une baisse du chmage. - la baisse du chmage induit une hausse du salaire nominal, ce qui tend rduire la diminution de W/P - Au fer et mesure que le chmage diminue, la baisse du salaire rel sera de plus en plus faible : le chmage tend alors rejoindre sa nouvelle valeur d'quilibre f2/( :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P  2eme cas : le choc transitoire Supposons que les autorits augmentent de faon transitoire le taux de croissance de l'offre de monnaie une certaine date T : \!  :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P , On sait tout d'abord que cette mesure n'a aucun impact sur l'quilibre de long terme. Rsultat : La modification transitoire du rythme de croissance de l'offre de monnaie laisse inchang l'quilibre de long terme de l'conomie. Que se passe-t-il durant la dynamique transitoire (court terme) ? `,XC+ :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P o -> Si le taux de croissance de l'offre de monnaie augmente la date T cela se traduit par une augmentation des prix ds la date T et donc une diminution du salaire rel, le salaire nominal tant prdtermin. -> Le taux de chmage diminue instantanment (saut en T) -> Puis, le taux de croissance de l'offre de monnaie revient sa position antrieure. pp p :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P F -> Ds lors, tout contribue ramener l'conomie vers son quilibre initial. -> La baisse du chmage par rapport son niveau de long terme cre une pression la hausse sur le salaire nominal qui tend augmenter le salaire rel -> la hausse des prix est en diminution du fait de l arrt de la politique montaire -> le salaire rel augmente ce qui ramne progressivement l'conomie vers son tat stationnaire. < :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage$;! P Conclusion Section 2 La courbe de Phillips (version Samuelson  Solow) implique que les politiques de rgulation de la demande agrge permettent de dterminer la combinaison optimale de chmage et d'inflation tant court terme qu' long terme.     :Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips 2.2. Dynamique du Chmage0;  $P d Mais alors comment expliquer la stagflation des annes 70 o inflation et chmage coexistent ? Ba`d Plan de la Prsentation(  Section 1. Le Modle Offre Globale / Demande Globale : une Analyse en Statique Comparative Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips : L quation Manquante de l Economie Keynsienne Section 3. La Boucle Prix  Salaires : l Indexation des Salaires et le NAIRU )$ 0 '    * Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires L indexation des salaires et le NAIRU K%*&&,%   1Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires Introduction$2%  Le principal message associ la courbe de Phillips est que la gestion de la demande agrge permet de fixer de faon optimale les niveaux respectifs de l inflation et de chmage court terme mais aussi long terme. C est prcisment cette dernire assertion qui va tre critique ds les annes 60 Observation Empirique : il est ncessaire d amender la courbe de Phillips si l on veut expliquer de faon plus satisfaisante l volution des salaires nominaux ,  1Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires Introduction$2%  Ide : l inflation joue un rle essentiel dans la dtermination des salaires nominaux (processus de ngociations salariales) L inflation doit donc tre introduite dans la spcification de la courbe de Phillips originelle Le taux de croissance des salaires nominaux dpend alors : du chmage (observation de Phillips) de l inflation (indexation)RB~A] 1Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires Introduction$2%  C est le principe de l indexation des salaires nominaux qui donne lieu l apparition d une Boucle Prix - Salaires $$z bSection 3. La Boucle Prix  Salaires Introduction$2% Plan de la Section 3 3.1. La courbe de Phillips avec indexation 3.2. La dynamique Inflation Chmage 3.3. Politique Montaire pDD@PDDDD  %Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires $&%- 3.1. La Courbe de Phillips avec Indexation(+. OSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Courbe de Phillips avec Indexation$P% + P  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dfinition : la courbe de Phillips avec indexation postule que le taux d inflation influence directement la dynamique des salaires nominaux : o le paramtre g dsigne le degr d indexation des salaires long terme -----------------------------------------------------------------------------H|| 2OSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Courbe de Phillips avec Indexation$P% + P  Remarque 1 : long terme, nous avons vu que on obtient alors une relation d indexation du taux de croissance des salaires de long terme sur l inflation C est pourquoi g dsigne le coefficient d indexation de long terme p/ 5 GOSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Courbe de Phillips avec Indexation$P% + P  Remarque 2 : long terme, l inflation s explique par : - la croissance de la masse montaire - et par l indexation des salaires au prix on assiste donc l apparition d une boucle Prix - Salaires r@ =  JOSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Courbe de Phillips avec Indexation$P% + P D Remarque 3 : boucle prix  salaires court terme - si les prix augmentent la date t : pt>0 - les salaires nominaux augmentent : Dwt>0 - le salaire rel augmente en t+1, ce qui rduit la demande de travail - Baisse de l emploi et baisse de l offre de biens - A demande constante, la baisse de l offre conduit une nouvelle hausse des prix - Dynamique jointe prix  salaires ou boucle Prix - Salaires c@O , ?&   XOSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Courbe de Phillips avec Indexation$P% + P  Remarque 4 : Sur le plan formel, l introduction d une indexation des salaires sur les prix va se traduire par l apparition d un systme linaire dynamique d ordre 1 Exactement, comme nous l avions fait pour la courbe de Phillips originelle, il convient de se ramener des quations dynamiques sur le chmage et l inflation RL u%K Y%Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires $&%& 3.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage($',  pHSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $H -On considre le mme modle que prcdemment ".-, qHSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $H  Pour un niveau de salaire nominal prdtermin, l quilibre (modle AS-DS) est dfini par : B`;&E   |HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $H  Comme dans le modle prcdent, la variation de l'emploi d'quilibre est gal la diffrence entre la variation de la masse montaire et la variation du salaire En utilisant la courbe de Phillips index, on obtient une relation dynamique : ou encore ,a ZHSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  De la mme faon, en diffrentiant le niveau gnral des prix on obtient : En utilisant la courbe de Phillips index, on obtient une seconde relation dynamique : " [HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : Si l on suppose une indexation des salaires sur l inflation, la dynamique jointe de l inflation et du chmage est rsume par le systme dynamique suivant : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6QVPO  HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Nous allons prsent successivement tudier : - l tat stationnaire assimil au long terme - la dynamique transitoire de l conomie N8  HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Etat Stationnaire T  HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I x Etat Stationnaire (long terme) : que change la prise en compte d une indexation ? - On cherche un couple de valeurs (u*,p*) telles que - Pour cela, on doit rsoudre le systme : H!YA  HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : l quilibre stationnaire du modle avec indexation des salaires sur les prix est dfini par : --------------------------------------------------------------------------- (    HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I : Remarque 1 : De faon logique pour g=0, on retrouve l tat stationnaire du modle avec Courbe de Phillips originelle Remarque 2 : Tant que g<1, c est--dire tant que l indexation des salaires aux prix est partielle, on retrouve long terme un arbitrage entre inflation et chmage Q  0B  HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  - Une hausse du rythme de croissance de la masse montaire conduit une hausse permanente du taux d inflation et une baisse du taux de chmage - En cas d indexation partielle, les politiques de gestion de la demande agrge permettent de choisir la combinaison optimale inflation  chmage long terme. - Ce rsultat est la consquence de l illusion montaire des salaris, le salaire nominal n incorporant pas l volution des prix mme long terme. rv )] HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Remarque 3 : En revanche, en cas d indexation parfaite, c est--dire lorsque g=1, le taux de chmage de long terme est indpendant du niveau d inflation : la courbe de Phillips de long terme est alors verticale L arbitrage inflation  chmage disparat long terme : on retrouve la proprit de neutralit de la politique montaire nSMU HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I Etat Stationnaire avec Indexation Parfaite Consquence 1 : La Banque Centrale ne doit se proccuper long terme que de la gestion de l inflation Neutralit de la politique montaire long terme Consquence 2 : Seules les rformes de structure sur le march du travail permettent de modifier durablement le niveau du chmage Taux de chmage structurel ,i2,Y3t(  c.HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Stabilit de l Etat Stationnaire Le cas d une Indexation Parfaite g=1nI!!L HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I T Question : l quilibre stationnaire est il stable ? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dfinition : On dit qu'un quilibre stationnaire est stable si et seulement si : ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- n+ -N + HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  En cas d indexation parfaite, g=1, le systme dynamique se rcrit sous la forme suivante : 8cAa HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I Y Ce qui peut se rcrire sous forme matricielle sous la forme avec On note : ZZX HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I 0 Un peu de technique& Solution au systme dynamique = Solution Particulire (Etat Stationnaire) + Solution du Systme Dynamique Homogne Associ  b .(9 ^ HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I " On cherche rsoudre un systme de la forme : Problme : la matrice A n est pas diagonale Solution : on va diagonaliser la matrice A z  $   HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I   Des souvenirs& Thorme : Pour toute matrice A de dterminant non nul, il existe une relation du type o la diagonale de la matrice D correspond aux valeurs propres l1 et l2 de A , et o les colonnes de la matrice P correspondent aux vecteurs propres de A K S  HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dfinition : Soit un vecteur, Xtild, dont les lments sont des combinaisons linaires de Xt, c est--dire de l inflation et du chmage, telles que : ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cela implique : @77lo  7   HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Quel est l intrt de cette transformation ? Soit le systme homogne (que l on ne sait pas rsoudre) En pr-multipliant gauche par P-1, il vient : soit encore : On obtient un systme diagonale que l on sait rsoudre 9/" 9.p  i HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I s En effet, Donc, la solution est : o les paramtres f1 et f2 sont dtermins par les conditions initiales lt (2s HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I dComment revenir la solution sur le vecteur Xt ? Il suffit de considrer la dfinition de Xtild : D o l on dduit : Donc la solution du systme homogne est : L3K.H-  /  O HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I ~ En rsum, aprs quelques petits calculs , on montre que : ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : La solution gnral du systme dynamique associ au modle avec indexation s crit soit encore ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ^<=G?  HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I 6 Cet quilibre stationnaire est-il- stable ? x./3 H&HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I r ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Rsultat : Sous l hypothse les deux valeurs propres de la matrice A sont relles, positives et infrieures l unit L quilibre stationnaire est stable. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ d:JM9 O'HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Ce rsultat implique que quelles que soient les conditions initiales du systme (c est dire quelles que soient les valeurs des paramtres f1 et f2) on a : Donc, convergent vers leur valeur de long terme  7    _,HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Implication conomique - Si l ES est stable, cela signifie que l conomie aura naturellement tendance aller vers cette situation - Si le taux de chmage est en dessous de sa valeur de long terme, le chmage aura dans les priodes venir, tendance augmenter jusqu retrouver sa valeur de long terme. - Si l inflation est en dessous de sa valeur de long terme, l inflation aura tendance augmenter jusqu retrouver sa valeur de long terme. fPPo 8&"   a-HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Dynamique de Transition Le cas d une Indexation Parfaite g=1n@!C  "HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I @ Mais comment l conomie converge-t-elle vers l tat stationnaire ? -> Question de la dynamique de transition -> Construction du diagramme des phases -> On se place dans une repre (ut,pt) et l on cherche tout d abord dcrire les lieux d invariance du chmage et de l inflation|Z ZF\  ] ! W+HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I \Lieu d invariance de l inflation Dans le cas d une indexation parfaite, on a : Ds lors, le taux d inflation est contant dans le temps si et seulement si ou encore :&"  X*HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I 4Lieu d invariance de l inflation ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : le lieu d invariance de l inflation est reprsent par une droite dcroissante dans le repre (ut,pt) Tous les points situs au nord de cette courbe, correspondent une situation o l inflation dcrot. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- "NllM  r/HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I rPreuve : Soit un couple (u,p) tel que l inflation soit constante. Supposons que l on considre une inflation suprieure p pour un mme taux de chmage. Il vient alors, soitN b; }23HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I NLieu d invariance du chmage Dans le cas d une indexation parfaite, on a : Ds lors, le taux de chmage est contant dans le temps si et seulement si ou encore :&  4HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I Lieu d invariance du chmage ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : le lieu d invariance du chmage est reprsent par une droite croissante dans le repre (ut,pt) Tous les points situs au nord de cette courbe, correspondent une situation o le chmage crot. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- NfiM  5HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I Preuve : Soit un couple (u,p) tel que le chmage soit constant Supposons que l on considre une inflation suprieure p pour un mme taux de chmage (partie nord du plan). Il vient alors, soitN _P 6s0HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Construisons prsent le diagramme des phases afin d tudier la dynamique transitoire du modle &fce 78t1HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Dcrivons l ajustement dans le temps de l inflation et du chmage : On est parti d un point initial o (rG+q 9:;<=Y)HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I |Conclusions Section 3.1 Rsultat 1 : en prsence d une indexation parfaite, le dilemme inflation chmage disparat long terme Rsultat 2 : Mais mme court terme, dans la dynamique de transition, une hausse du taux chmage peut parfaitement concider avec une hausse de l inflation Phnomne de stagflation : ?$ >%Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires $&% 3.3. Politique Montaire(,   #=Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.3. Politique Montaire$>%  > ( Que ce passe-t-il si les autorits montaires dcident d augmenter la base montaire (ou d abaisser les taux directeurs) de faon permanente ? 6 A=Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.3. Politique Montaire$>%  >  On sait qu long terme la courbe de Phillips avec indexation parfaite est verticale ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : A long terme, la politique montaire est neutre et ne conduit qu une augmentation de l inflation (dichotomie classique) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NwWv @=Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.3. Politique Montaire$>%  > i Mais que se passe-t-il durant la transition ? - Analyse Graphique - Interprtation Economique Ri25h C=Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.3. Politique Montaire$>%  > Analyse Graphique Quel est l impact d une hausse de m sur les lieux d invariance et sur l tat stationnaire ? 1re courbe d invariance (inflation) Si m augmente, cette courbe se dplace vers le Nord #;'2 D=Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.3. Politique Montaire$>%  > Analyse Graphique 2me courbe d invariance (chmage) Si m augmente, cette courbe se dplace vers le Nord r[%2n EFHG?=Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.3. Politique Montaire$>%  > Interprtation Economique Priode t0  t1 - Si m augmente la date t0, l offre de monnaie croit plus vite, ce qui dsquilibre le march de la monnaie et induit une demande de biens excdentaire : les prix augmentent - Les prix augmentent plus vite que les salaire nominaux : le salaire rel et le chmage diminuent - la baisse du chmage et la hausse des prix induisent t un accroissement progressif du rythme de croissance des salaires nominaux : la baisse du salaire rel devient de plus en plus faible +=( I=Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.3. Politique Montaire$>%  > Interprtation Economique Priode t1  t3 - le chmage est si faible que le rythme de croissance des salaires nominaux devient suprieur au rythme de croissance des prix : le salaire rel commence augmenter. - le chmage augmente - l inflation continue d augmenter car mme si le chmage augmente, on a encore u<ubar, donc les salaires nominaux continuent d augmenter, ce qui rduit l offre et donc conduit une hausse des prix : d o le sur-ajustement de l inflation+$!8HA  {   J=Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.3. Politique Montaire$>%  >  Interprtation Economique A partir de t3 - les prix augmentent de moins en moins vite du fait de la hausse du chmage (qui induit un relchement sur les salaires nominaux) - L inflation se met dcrotre et rejoindre progressivement son niveau d tat stationnaire.P+^ B=Section 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.3. Politique Montaire$>%  >  Conclusion de la Politique Montaire (avec indexation parfaite) De faon transitoire, il existe toujours un arbitrage inflation  chmage. Les politiques de demande restent efficaces pour stabiliser le systme conomique court terme. Les fluctuation transitoires du chmage peuvent tre radiques au prix d une variabilit accrue de l inflation.`C B d LPlan de la Prsentation(  Section 2. La Courbe de Phillips : L quation Manquante de l Economie Keynsienne Section 3. La Boucle Prix  Salaires : l Indexation des Salaires et le NAIRU Section 4. La vision montariste de la courbe de Phillips : Friedman (1968) et Phelps (1970)  0 ) 1!    * 1 1M:Section 4. La Vision Montariste de la Courbe de Phillips ;:*&,   K-Section 4. La Vision Montariste Introduction$.!  .  Prambule : La vision Montariste de la courbe de Phillips est le fondement thorique principal du comportement des Banques Centrales. C est la principale justification thorique de l indpendance des Banques Centrales \ W N-Section 4. La Vision Montariste Introduction$.!  .  Les montaristes vont revisiter la courbe de Phillips et vont mettre en vidence le rle fondamental des anticipations d inflation Courbe de Phillips Augmente des Anticipations Remarque : on va arriver peu prs aux mmes conclusions que celles du modle avec indexation parfaite, mais l histoire est tout autre& . 1/ I O-Section 4. La Vision Montariste Introduction$.!  .  Point de dpart : la courbe de Phillips originelle accrdite l ide selon laquelle le salaire nominal ne ragit que graduellement aux tensions sur le march du travail qui se clt chaque priode en situation de dsquilibre. Dans cette, analyse un point essentiel est le caractre involontaire du chmage. Chez Samuelson, le dilemme inflation  chmage long terme est fond sur une vision keynsienne du march du travail et l existence de rigidits nominales pD,! P-Section 4. La Vision Montariste Introduction$.!  .  Objectifs de Friedman et de Phelps : Objectif 1 : Montrer qu long terme, il n y a pas d arbitrage inflation  chmage et que l inflation est un phnomne purement montaire  Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon Consquence : long terme, les politiques montaires de rgulation de la demande n engendrent que de l inflation )=) = f   >       V-Section 4. La Vision Montariste Introduction$.!  . : Objectifs de Friedman et de Phelps : Objectif 2 : Montrer qu court terme, s il existe bien un arbitrage inflation  chmage, cet arbitrage n implique pas ncessairement une vision keynsienne du march du travail Ide : les carts du chmage son niveau naturel rsultent d un choix volontaire de la part des salaris qui fondent leur dcision d offre de travail sur le salaire rel qu ils anticipent. )s( 5I!&  { Q-Section 4. La Vision Montariste Introduction$.!  .  Friedman et Phelps placent les anticipations d inflation et leur mode de dtermination au cSur de l analyse de la dynamique de court terme avec l apparition du concept de courbe de Phillips augmente On peut avoir un arbitrage inflation  chmage court terme, mais cette relation se dforme dans le temps en fonction de l volution des anticipations d inflation. *s.  ^ S-Section 4. La Vision Montariste Introduction$.!  .  Consquence principale L efficacit des politiques de rgulation de la demande qui permettait dans la vision keynsienne de choisir le couple optimal (inflation / chmage) dpend dornavant des anticipations d inflation des agents Plus les salaris anticipent mal l volution des prix, plus les politiques de demande permettent d arbitrer entre inflation et chmage. j[u W-Section 4. La Vision Montariste Introduction0.  !  a Plan de la Section 4 4.1. La courbe de Phillips augmente 4.2. Dynamique Inflation Chmage jLDDGDDD b X Section 4. La Vision Montariste!!  ' 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente(%(,  TESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F j ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dfinition : On appelle courbe de Phillips augmente des anticipations, une relation de la forme suivante o pa dsigne le niveau anticip de l inflation. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ T5x.  v YESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F ( Remarque 1 : la relation inflation / chmage (courbe de Phillips) est paramtre par le niveau d inflation anticipe, c est pour cela que l on utilise le terme de Courbe de Phillips Augmente Remarque 2 : court terme, inflation anticipe donne, on retrouve un arbitrage inflation / chmage Remarque 3 : mais cette relation va se dformer dans le temps en fonction des anticipations d inflationl  ]h ZESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F F----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Consquence : on distingue deux courbes de Phillips : - Courbe de Phillips de court terme paramtre par l inflation anticipe qui est dcroissante - Courbe de Phillips de long terme obtenue dans le cas d anticipations parfaite : cette courbe est verticale -----------------------------------------------------------------------------nNZVZ V  ^[ESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  Que se passe-t-il lorsque les anticipations d inflation des agents augmentent ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : Une hausse de l inflation anticipe augmente le taux de chmage compatible avec un taux d inflation effectif donn. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- En ce sens, on dit que la hausse de l inflation anticipe dgrade l arbitrage entre inflation et chmage JQk /c\ESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Consquence : Lorsque l inflation anticipe est introduite dans la courbe de Phillips, on peut expliquer l instabilit de cette courbe court terme tandis qu long terme on retrouve une courbe verticale -------------------------------------------------------------------------- `NLij ]ESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F < Il existe une famille de courbe de Phillips de court terme paramtres par l inflation anticipe et l on peut sauter de l une l autre Adquation la conjoncture des annes 70 o inflation et chmage se sont mis varier apparemment indpendamment l une de l autre (stagflation) 2 &_ESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  2d5e(aESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  A long terme, la courbe de Phillips est verticale, on a donc les mmes implications thoriques que dans le cas d un modle avec indexation parfaite, mais l explication thorique est totalement diffrente : C est le basculement d une information imparfaite et asymtrique une information parfaite qui fonde le passage CT LT bO2O '`ESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  Comment fonder thoriquement la courbe de Phillips augmente ? Hypothse 1 : Le march du travail est quilibre, le salaire nominal est parfaitement flexible Il n y a donc pas de rigidit nominale Hypothse 2 : La demande de travail est dtermine par l galit du salaire rel la productivit marginale du travail ~*|RR*kJ )bESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F ^ Hypothse 3 : L offre de travail fait l objet d un choix explicite de la part des salaris et est une fonction croissante du salaire rel anticip. o k>0 est l lasticit de l offre de travail au salaire rel et n : niveau d offre de travail incompressible Hypothse d asymtrie d informationn %k$/ CfESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  Supposons que la demande de travail soit : A l quilibre : on obtient le salaire nominal en fonction de p et pa ||.t   DgESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  Ce qui permet d obtenir le niveau d emploi effectif en fonction de p et pa Ce qui peut se rcrire globalement sous la forme avec .I  B EhESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  Remarque 1 : on retrouve les conclusions du modle AS-DS, et en particulier le fait que le niveau d emploi est une fonction croissante de l erreur d anticipation p-pa Remarque 2 : Le niveau nbar dsigne le logarithme de l emploi lorsque le niveau gnral des prix est parfaitement anticip : c est donc le niveau naturel d emploi ou niveau d emploi walrassien. fn  b5  j     FiESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  Admettons que les erreurs d anticipations sur les prix correspondent ( un facteur prs) aux erreurs d anticipations sur l inflation, on obtient une relation : ce qui peut se rcrire & GjESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  Enfin, si l on dfinit un taux de chmage naturel (qui correspond au niveau naturel d emploi) et qui rsulte des seules imperfections du march du travail en dehors de toute erreur sur les anticipations Si l on dfinit de la mme manire un taux de chamge toute date A court terme, u est diffrent de ubar en raison des erreurs d anticipations (choix volontaire d offre de travail) B/H  3  M HkESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F U Il vient alors On retrouve la courbe de Phillips augmente des anticipations 6@?U _lESection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.1. La Courbe de Phillips Augmente$F!% F  -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Consquence : On peut fonder thoriquement une relation dcroissante entre inflation et chmage paramtre par les anticipations partir d une analyse du march du travail caractrise par une imperfection asymtrique de l information. Chez Friedman : Erreur d anticipation ! Arbitrage Inflation-Chmage -------------------------------------------------------------------------- vL5L<'FM^L L kq Section 4. La Vision Montariste!!   & 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage($',  `mDSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E 2 Considrons prsent un modle AS-DS complet : 33.!    wrDSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E : Comment lier les anticipations d inflation l inflation effective ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Friedman considre un schma d anticipation adaptatif la Cagan (tudiant de Friedman). Ide : la rvision d anticipation est proportionnelle l erreur commise la priode prcdente ------------------------------------------------------------------------- :FW.   xsDSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E y Remarque 1 : Si b=0, les anticipations sont statiques Remarque 2 : Si b=1, les anticipations sont extrapolatives z   (: > ytDSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  Remarque 3 : dans le cas gnral 0<b<1, plus b est lev plus l adaptation des anticipations suite une erreur d anticipation est rapide x  ^ wzuDSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E 2 Critique des anticipations adaptatives : prsence d une erreur systmatique durant la phase d ajustement Conditionnellement une anticipation initiale, on sous(sur) estime l inflation pendant une certaine priode (qui peut tre plus ou moins longue suivant la valeur de b) vll |DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E F Le modle complet s crit donc : $$# {vDSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  On dtermine tout d abord l quilibre conditionnellement une anticipation pa : UU.N   xDSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E \ Commentaire : on retrouve une relation croissante entre prix et prix anticip : - si les prix anticip augmentent, les salaris souhaitent une hausse des salaires nominaux pour maintenir leur pouvoir d achat - si salaires augmentent, prix constant, le salaire rel augmente - Rduction de la demande de travail, de l emploi et de l offre de biens - la demande de biens devient suprieure l offre : les prix augmentent n E $ yDSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  Cet quilibre va tre rendu dynamique via la courbe de Phillips augmente et le processus d anticipation 1re quation dynamique D o l on tire Comment lier l inflation anticipe l inflation effective passe ? Xoun]  zDSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E ]On part de la dfinition des anticipations : En rarrangeant les termes, il vient : ^^X {DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  On obtient ainsi la premire quation de la dynamique inflation chmage D o finalement : bba }DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E v 2me quation dynamique On sait que En diffrentiant En utilisant la fonction de production, on montre que : 0w_u ~DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E h Par substitution de pa, on dduit immdiatement la seconde quation dynamique On en dduit que : 8iS.  Q DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  --------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : la dynamique inflation chmage est rsume par le systme dynamique suivant --------------------------------------------------------------------- & DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E Q Ce qui peut se rcrire sous forme matricielle sous la forme avec (RZFP DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  Analysons successivement : - l tat stationnaire - la dynamique de transition [[Z HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I 3 Etat Stationnaire : Existence et Stabilit T0.3 DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  A l tat stationnaire, le chmage et l inflation sont invariants Donc, on a : $Y?X DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : A l tat stationnaire, le taux d inflation correspond au taux de croissance de la masse montaire et le taux de chmage correspond au taux naturel, appel au NAIRU ---------------------------------------------------------------------- lHHHD DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  Remarque 1 : A long terme, on retrouve la Thorie Quantitative de la Monnaie. Les anticipations ont converg, la politique montaire n a pas d impact. En l absence d illusion montaire, on retrouve la dichotomie classique conomie relle / conomie montaire : Les actions de la Banque Centrale ne dterminent long terme que le rythme de croissance des prix (l inflation) | f$r?2| DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  Remarque 2 : A long terme, il n y a pas d arbitrage inflation  chmage. Chez Friedman, l arbitrage de court terme est fond sur l asymtrie d information. A long terme, cette asymtrie disparat puisque les anticipations ont pu converger vers la vraie valeur de l inflation. A long terme, le niveau du taux de chmage est indpendant de l inflationHc  Kb DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E r Remarque 3 (NAIRU) : On appelle NAIRU (Non Accelerating-Inflation Unemployment Rate) le taux de chmage garantissant une invariance de l inflation Cas des anticipations statiques HH-     i DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E f L quilibre stationnaire est-il stable ? On montre ici que si b<=1, alors les deux valeurs propres de la matrice A vrifient Si l on admet que l inflation est pr-dtermine, on a donc autant de valeurs propres stables que de variable pr-dtermine Il existe une trajectoire selle convergente x.*/3 HSection 3. La Boucle Prix - Salaires 3.1. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$I% $ I  Dynamique de Transition H DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  Lieu d invariance du chmage : On considre l quation dynamique Le chmage est stable si et seulement si : Ce qui implique : & h DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E Lieu d invariance du chmage ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : le lieu d invariance du chmage est reprsent par une droite dcroissante dans le repre (ut,pt) Tous les points situs au nord de cette courbe, correspondent une situation o le chmage crot. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- NhiM  DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E Preuve : Soit un couple (u,p) tel que le chmage soit constant Supposons que l on considre une inflation suprieure p pour un mme taux de chmage (partie nord du plan). Il vient alors, soitN _P  DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  Lieu d invariance de l inflation : On considre l quation dynamique L inflation est stable si et seulement si : Ce qui implique : &$i DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E! $ E .Lieu d invariance de l inflation ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rsultat : le lieu d invariance de l inflation est reprsent par une droite croissante dans le repre (ut,pt) Tous les points situs au nord de cette courbe, correspondent une situation o l inflation dcrot. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- !NjlM  DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E! $ E Preuve : Soit un couple (u,p) tel que l inflation soit constante Supposons que l on considre une inflation suprieure p pour un mme taux de chmage (partie nord du plan). Il vient alors, soitN aP )DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  Construisons prsent le diagramme des phases afin d tudier la dynamique transitoire du modle &fce *68DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  Conclusion : durant la transition vers l tat stationnaire on retrouve le dilemme inflation chmage Le temps que les anticipations s ajustent, les politiques de rgulation de la demande conservent leur efficacit Plus les salaris ajustent rapidement leurs anticipations, plus la transition sera rapide et donc moins les politiques conomiques seront efficaces npfq(  < Section 4. La Vision Montariste!!    4.3. Politique Montaire(,  B9Section 4. La Vision Montariste 4.3. Politique Montaire$:! : ( Que ce passe-t-il si les autorits montaires dcident d augmenter la base montaire (ou d abaisser les taux directeurs) de faon permanente ? 6 ?9Section 4. La Vision Montariste 4.3. Politique Montaire$:! :  Analyse de long terme : ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Rsultat : long terme, la hausse permanente du rythme de croissance de la masse montaire conduit uniquement une hausse proportionnelle de l inflation (thorie quantitative de la monnaie) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6sVr C9Section 4. La Vision Montariste 4.3. Politique Montaire$:!  : T Analyse de la dynamique de transition Comment s effectue l ajustement vers ce nouvel tat stationnaire ? La politique Montaire est elle efficace court terme ? 8& DH:9Section 4. La Vision Montariste 4.3. Politique Montaire$:! : 4BILAN La Politique Montaire reste efficace court terme parce que les agents sous estiment l inflation. Durant la priode o les anticipations d inflation s ajustent progressivement sur la nouvelle inflation de long terme, le chmage reste en dessous de son niveau naturel f  J9Section 4. La Vision Montariste 4.3. Politique Montaire$:! :  BILAN (suite) C est parce que les agents commentent une erreur d anticipation que la politique montaire peut tre transitoirement efficace . n K-Section 4. La Vision Montariste Introduction$.!  . nConsquence : l indpendance des Banques Centrales Comment convaincre que l inflation sera faible ? La BC doit trouver un moyen pour prouver qu ellle ne cdera pas la tentation de faire monter l inflation par surprise, seule faon de convaincre les agents d anticiper une inflation basse. On doit donc renoncer au pouvoir montaire et rendre la banque centrale indpendante, avec pour principale mission de combattre l inflation. ffR21N.   L-Section 4. La Vision Montariste Introduction$.!  . Consquence : l indpendance des Banques Centrales Comment convaincre que l inflation sera faible ? Seule une banque centrale dont l objectif est rellement une inflation 2% et qui n a pas de soucis de rlection ou de promesses lectorales tenir saura convaincre les agents qu ils ne se feront pas avoir s ils anticipent une inflation basse. tf21(_  +9Section 4. La Vision Montariste 4.3. Politique Montaire$:! : LIMITES On conoit que dans cette perspective, la faiblesse de la conception montariste c est prcisment le processus d anticipation adaptatif. Peut on croire une erreur systmatique d anticipation pendant ne serait ce que quelques priodes successives ?b  q 9Section 4. La Vision Montariste 4.3. Politique Montaire$:! : : You can fool all of the people some of the time You can fool some of the people all of the time BUT You can t fool all of the people all of the time v512,DSection 4. La Vision Montariste 4.2. La Dynamique Inflation Chmage$E!$ E  Imaginons que les agents ajustent plus rapidement leurs anticipations & .LLK P-9Section 4. La Vision Montariste 4.3. Politique Montaire$:! : r Et c est prcisment la thse des nouveaux classiques& .288 9 R  Section 4. La vision montariste de la courbe de Phillips : Friedman (1968) et Phelps (1970) Section 5. La vision noclassique de la courbe de Phillips : l apport des anticipations rationnelles 1! 2't G  SISection 5. La Nouvelle Economie Classique Les anticipations rationnelles,J+$  >   /d !"#$%& ' ( ) * +BCDEFGHJPabcuvw !"#$%&'()*+-./01234678:;=>?AB CEFG I!J:KHSKT_U`VaWbXr\s]~_`abcdefghiklnopqrstuwz{JP\]^`bduvw~*+,-036IJKLMNdel|}~  ./01279;=@EFGIMN O Q T  ` 3` ff>>\fg` J*T333` QYmx~3ft` \ғhEy`` cb^DDf`Y˵W` sg7xGr` K%ޯd{mG/` 33f>?" dd@,?nFd@    @ `  n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` `<p>> 3+(    6_ #" `b ` _ X*   6x_ #" `` ` _ Z* xT ~  "~\ {  "{  c BB CDEFd @ bb   H   T W6Vw}\gFQ6<1++11 1L b6xQrq 6\}N   - c    0 A Q g     S    6N KawF bFy0 a*ly7lE;uz  B | a F 0 ! 1 < B < & l L 0  @`"T   c |BC+DEFyd @ ==gL6cI}\eA& w6m!W<! &<W!r6W}F6\}>68QNlX^XH8+Sgg|@`"Jo 5 J   B! 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?T"`qH I  B  0DԔ@G@,$@  0B  s *D`M `,$@  0  ! s *D^ "`M ,$@  0 p Modle AS-DS 2 &   B " s *Dj`,$@  0 % 0Lb ,$  0 IP 2   & 0f  V',$%  0 S Y2* etc.. 2   XB ( 0DԔS S  ) 0@k g MTemps 2  B * s *D8c=,$@  0B + s *D8cW,$@  0 , 0po j ,$   0 JYs 2   - 0t j JQ,$   0 XYd 2  B . 0Dww`,$@   0B / @ 0Dw,$@   0 1 s *0x "` M ,$@   0 ]Equilibre date t=1  2   2 0| Zt,$  0 IY1* 2  B 3 0DԔ@ @,$@  0B 4 s *D ,$@  0B 5 s *D s,$@  0 6 @ 0  P n,$  0 IY 2   7 0  G,$  0 IN 2   9  BQCDEFA8cZ {&Q@  "` `,$@  0 : s * "` @  ,$D  0 [F. de production  2   ; 00 z a,$  0 IY1* 2  B < 0D  ,$D  0B = 0D  ,$@  0 > 0  p,$  0 IN1* 2   ? s *䖤 "` m  ,$D  0 T Emploi t=1 2   B @ 0DԔ@d@,$@  0 A s *ܚ "` V ,$@  0 X Chmage t=1  (2    B  6A g? ?"`]ki8 g$D  0B C 0DԔ  ,$@  0 F s *蟤 "` W ,$D   0 \Courbe de Phillips 2   G 0 # nA  S?T?#" `?f kI H S$D!  0  B J 0DԔ ,$@"  0 K  6A V? ?"` 8 V$D#  0B L 0DԔ ,$@$  0B  s *޽h ? 3___PPT10Œ.+xg0D' = @B DԎ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(DH' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*! %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*! 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D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*/ %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*/ D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*/ D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*1 %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*1 D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*1 D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*2 %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*2 D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*2 D9' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*3 %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*3 D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*3 D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*4 %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*4 D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*4 D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*5 %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*5 D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*5 D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*6 %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*6 D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*6 D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*7 %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*7 D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*7 D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*9 %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*9 D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*9 D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*: %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*: D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*: DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*; %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*; D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*; D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*< %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*< D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*< Dr' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*= %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*= D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*= D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*> %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*> D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*> DV' =A@BBB B0B%(D' =-6B+checkerboard(across)*<3<*: D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*: %(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*? %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*? D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*? D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*@ %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*@ D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*@ D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*A %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*A D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*A D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*B %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*B D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*B DA' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*C %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*C D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*C D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*F %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*F D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*F Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*G %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*G D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*G D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*J %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*J D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*J D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*K %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*K D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*K DA' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*L D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*L D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*& %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*& D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*& ++0+!   ++0+%   ++0+&   ++0+,   ++0+-   ++0+1   ++0+2   ++0+6   ++0+7   ++0+:   ++0+:   ++0+;   ++0+>   ++0+?   ++0+A   ++0+F   +l O  4(   ~  s *h  j     s *d M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3h ` ___PPT10@ ..+1;[D ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* ]%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* ]D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* ]D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +# O  $(   ~  s *  j   ~  s *X M    ^  6pp   0A k? ?"`)  8 k$D  0^  6   s ,A _??#" `?P^8 _$D  0   s ,A  ]??#" `?M 8 ]$D  0   s ,A b??#" `?p=(] 8 b$D  0   s ,A e??#" `? z 8 e$D  0   0A n? ?"` N 8 n$D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3*"___PPT10..+vD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +  O  J(   ~  s *$  j     s * M <$  0   "P@08X^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10| ..++dD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 8%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 8D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 8D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* &%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* &D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* &+8+0+ h +l O rj (   ~  s *0%  j     s *,& M<$@  0   ^  6pp^  6^  6p   S A q??#" `?- q^  6p   S A r??#" `?w{  r^  6   S A s??#" `?s T 8 s$D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+ :ڸDB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* a%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* aD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* aD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +  O xp  (   ~  s *=  j     s *> M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6^  6^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* g%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* gD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* g+ O( " P "(  P ~ P s *O   `}    P s *P   <$@  0     P 0 # nA ? ?#" `?p*X H $D  0  ^ P 6pp^ P 6^ P 6p P  S A ??#" `?  ^ P 6  P  s *A; ??"`) g 8 $D  0P P s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+T$ D~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*P %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*P D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*P D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* P %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* P D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* P D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*P 0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*P 0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*P 0D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* P %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* P D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* P +8 O    (   ~  s *h  j     s *i M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6^  6^  6   S A ~??#" `?-8 ~$D  0  0  hA ??#" `?F  H $D  0  P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+k=Dh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O   L(   ~  s *  j   ~  s *\ M    ^  6pp^  6^  6^  6p   S A ??#" `?   P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O   6(   ~  s *  j     s * q<$D  0   ^  6pp^  6  0 # nA ??#" `?V  Y H $D  0  P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10 ..+:D ' = @B Ds ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* \%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* \D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* \D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* J%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* JD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* JD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +v! O 0   (   ~  s *  j     s *쟫 M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6  BԦ  D p   S A ??#" `?w{ ^  6   s ,A ??#" `?8 $D  0  0 # nA ??#" `? : H $D  0  ^  6   S A  ??#" `?) *J 8 $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+D' = @B Du' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 4n%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 4nD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 4nD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* o%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* oD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* oD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +S O ^V! (   ~  s *  j   ~  s *h M    ^  6pp^  6^  6p   S A! ??#" `?c -C  P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +  O 0! 6(   ~  s *@ҫ  j     s *<ӫ M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6  0 # nA! ??#" `? K H $D  0  P  s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+? DB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* }%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* }D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* }D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +4Q" $ C ; !  (     3 T e,$D  0 `Dp=0&  NA noir)B,$@   0  3  "`Z2 M Inflation p& ^  6p{ps  3   I  1u  0 TV cCourbe de Phillips  2RB  s *D H RB   s *D B   @ 0DCC,$@  0B   0Dp ,$@  0   0 # nA" ?T?#" `?f p,MH $D  0     NA noir)CI ,$@  0  S ` "` &F ,$  0 lBaisse des Prix &" :B  3 8c)   S D "`]jI #,$   0 kHausse des Prix&"   0 Z  fCourbe de Phillips 2   S L "`I !,$D  0 Taux de chmage Structurel 6 B  s *޽h ? 3''___PPT10'.+Z%2@D&' = @B D[&' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DA' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*  %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*  D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*  D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*  %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*  D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*  D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*  %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*  D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*  D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* DA' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*  %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*  D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*  D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* DA' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* ++0+   ++0+   ++0+   ++0+   +u O# x! (   ~  s *X  j   ~  s *, M    ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O- P# x :(  x ~ x s *@%  j   ~ x s *& M    ^ x 6pp^ x 6^ x 6^ x 6^  x 6P x s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O p! (   ~  s *6  j     s *7 M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6^  6p   S A# ??#" `?Y% ^  6   S A$ ??#" `?s 7 8 $D  0^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+kZDB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* A%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* AD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* AD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O) *"" X (  X ~ X s *N  j   ~ X s *O M    ^ X 6pp^ X 6^ X 6^ X 6^  X 6p  X  S A% ??#" `?  P X s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +  O P! p(   ~  s *g j     s *M <$D  0  ^  6pp^  6  0 # nA% ??#" `?    ^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +  O* `X"` (  ` ~ ` s *T  j   ~ ` s *( M    ^ ` 6pp^ ` 6 ` 0 # nA% ??#" `? 3 S    ^ ` 6 `  S A& ??#" `?  ( 8 $D  0P ` s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+)D|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*` %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*` D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*` + O  ! 4(   ~  s *  j     s * M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O+ #h 4(  h ~ h s *h  j    h s *d M <$D  0   ^ h 6pp^ h 6P h s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*h %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*h D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*h +$  O. # x(   ~  s *d  j     s *` M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6^  6^  6p   S A' ??#" `?C  P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 0+! O! ,$!  (   ~  s *   `}   ~  s *       0 # nA( ??#" `?Z_     ^  6pp^  6   0 # nA% ? ?#" `?m     P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +; Q$ $ 2*" ( (  ( ~ ( s *$ TM    ^ ( 6pp^ ( 6j (  S A ??"? M !   ( ZA) T"` >    ( 0 D (Dilemne Inflation / Chmage Long Terme) 2)H P ( s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O/ # &(   ~  s *  j     s * M <$@  0 i ^  6pp^  6^  6p   S A* .??#" `?k .^  6   S A+ /??#" `?%  > 8 /$D  0^  6   S A, 0??#" `? G8 0$D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+JD~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +6 O2 0$ (   ~  s *'  j     s *( M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6  0 # nA- 5??#" `?]=rp 5  ^  6   S A. 6??#" `?  8 6$D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+'D ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* i%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* iD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* iDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O% 0"0 (  0 ~ 0 s *<  j    0 s *C Mq   "P@08X^ 0 6pp^ 0 6P 0 s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +l  O0 # J(   ~  s *dS  j     s *hiM <$D  0   "P@08X^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* a%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* aD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* aDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +  O1 bZ$ (   ~  s *c  j   ~  s *f M    ^  6pp^  6^  6tt   s ,A3 M??#" `? = 8 M$D  0^  6^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+)D|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O4 p$ (   ~  s *t  j     s *xw M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6^  6tt^  6p   S A0 =??#" `?  =^  6   S A1 >??#" `?V 08 >$D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+nDB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O3  P$ (   ~  s *  j     s *l M ,<$D  0   ^  6pp^  6^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3>6___PPT10..+qZD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 2%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 2D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 2Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* '%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 'D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* '+=Q8 $ [S$) (     3   r  Kp*1,   3   r  Kp*2,   3 ԥ  ?u*2    3 d  ?u*1  u  3 L Cw'  3pw  3 ̱ I'! 5tempsw  3  `'8 5temps^  6p{ps  3 0 ,w' 1u  0ؼ q} $Politique Montaire : Choc Permanent% 2%$  RB  s *DHRB  s *DXB  0DMMf  S 0¯ "`CM  ,$D  0 2Hausse du taux de croissance de la masse montaire&32"Z  RB  s *DHRB  s *DXB  0DPPXB  0D6 6 XB  0D  B  6DV ,$@  0  3 8˯  K ,$@  0 1TRB ! s *D8cM MRB " s *D8c   #  B'CDE(FA8c W!rvQM,s'{ @   "` ^,$D  0& $  BCDE4FA8c .]]0^_zpjS> @    "`6 w ,$D   00 % S @Я "` S ,$@  0  Rduction Progressive du Chmage&! "6  B & s *D@ &,$@  0@ ' S ֯ "`Iq ,$@   0 BHausse Progressive de l Inflation&"!"$ B ) s *D  ,$@   0B  s *޽h ? 3%++___PPT10*.+~}D)' = @B Dt)' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dq' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*% %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*% D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*% D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*& %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*& D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*& D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*# %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*# D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*# D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*' %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*' D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*' D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*) %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*) D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*) D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$ %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$ D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$ ++0+   ++0+   ++0+   ++0+%   ++0+'   +  O: 0% P(   ~  s *  j   ~  s * M    ^  6pp^  6^  6tt^  6^  6^  6   s ,A2 K??#" `?S -v 8 K$D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+wD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +V  O6 $ 4(   ~  s *  j     s *D M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* Y%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* YD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* YDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* ,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* ,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* ,+& O7 $ >(   ~  s *  j     s * M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6^  6   S A/ R??#" `? = 8 R$D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10 ..+? D ' = @B Ds ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* p%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* pD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* p+ O; P% 4(   ~  s *&  j     s *& M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZDh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* P%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* PD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* PDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* A%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* AD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* ADn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* A%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* AD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* A+\Q= $ %( .(     3 |;  r  Jp*,   3 @  >u*  u  3 dE Cw'  3pw  3 I I'! 5tempsw  3 L `'8 5temps^  6p{ps  3 Hausse Transitoire du taux de croissance de la masse montaire&?>"l   RB  s *DHRB  s *DXB  0D  B  6DV ,$@  0  3  b  K ,$@  0 1TRB  s *D8cM MRB  s *D8c  -  S g "`~ ,$@   0 Hausse Progressive du chmage&"6 & !  BCDE4FA8c 2! a4g4Za @    "`F ",$D   0 " S l "`0 ,$@  0 bSaut Initial du taux de chmage et de l inflation&21"Z  B # s *D"= ,$D  0B $ s *D  ,$@  0 &  BCDE(FA8c rWNr@ANBt{ @   "`  ,$D  0@ ' S t "`CP  ,$@  0 BBaisse Progressive de l Inflation&"!"$ H ( S B  s *޽h ? 3HH___PPT10H.+ФDBF' = @B DE' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dq' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*" %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*" D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*" D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$ %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$ D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$ D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*# %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*# D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*# D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*" D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*" D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*" %(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*# D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*# D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*# %(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$ D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*$ D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$ %(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*! %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*! D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*! DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*' %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*' D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*' D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*& %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*& D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*& D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*' D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*' D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*' %(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*( %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*( D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*( +0+0+   ++0+   ++0+   ++0+   ++0+   ++0+"   ++0+"   ++0+'   ++0+'   ++0+(   + O> % (   ~  s *ܚ  j     s *< q   "P@08X^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + OE &T (  T ~ T s *i j  i  T s *< Mq i "P@08X^ T 6pp^ T 6P T s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +0 OA &, 0(  , x , c $i  `}   x , c $i i H , 0޽h ? 380___PPT10.+D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D~' =%(D&' =4@BBBB%(D' =?B70, 0; .2, .5; .8, .5; 1, 0-g6B fade*<3<*, D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*, )?+PB 0&4 ((  4 x 4 c $ȼ     p 4 C HA7.inflation_expectations2 H 4 0޽h ? 3___PPT10i. +D=' = @B +V  O? % 4(   ~  s *Tϼ  j     s *LiM <$D  0 i ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 1%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 1D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 1Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 2%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 2D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 2+B OC P&< 4(  < ~ < s *߼  j    < s * M <$D  0   ^ < 6pp^ < 6P < s *޽h ?"` 3>6___PPT10..+qZD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*< %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*< D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*< Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*< %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*< D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*< Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*< B%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*< BD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*< BDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*< B^%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*< B^D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*< B^+  OF &\ 4(  \ ~ \ s *  j    \ s *P M <$@  0   ^ \ 6pp^ \ 6P \ s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+1;[DB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\ =\%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\ =\D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\ =\D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\ \z%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\ \zD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\ \z+ OI 0't 4(  t ~ t s *  j    t s * M7<$D  0   ^ t 6pp^ t 6P t s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZDh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*t C%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*t CD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*t CDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*t Dj%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*t DjD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*t DjDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*t k%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*t kD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*t k+u OJ xP'| (  | ~ | s *`  j   ~ | s *4 M    ^ | 6pp^ | 6P | s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + OG & d z(  d ~ d s *j j  j ~ d s *|jM  j ^ d 6pp^ d 6 d 0 3 tA ? ?#" `?"   j  d  >A8 ? ?#" `?  i  P d s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + OK JBp' (   ~  s *.  j     s */ M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6  0 3 tAh  ? ?#" `?       >A: ? ?#" `?c  e 8 $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10 ..+`D ' = @B Ds ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 2%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 2D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 2D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + OS nfp( (   ~  s *TE  j     s *F M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6   >A: ? ?#" `?S  d 8 $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3>6___PPT10..+D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* ;c%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* ;cD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* ;cDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* c%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* cD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* cDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +. OT ( 4(   ~  s *P[  j     s *L\ M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3*"___PPT10..+qZD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 5b%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 5bD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 5bDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* b%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* bD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* bDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* c%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* cD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* cDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* c%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* cD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* c+^ OV ( <(   ~  s *p   `}     s *q z<$D  0   ^  6pp^  6  0 3 tA< ? ?#" `? H $D  0  P  s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+ D ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* K%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* KD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* K+u OU x( (   ~  s *  j   ~  s *` M    ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +T  O\ ) @(  ~  s *  j  j ~  s *А M    ^  6pp^  6|  s ,A ??#" `?P^ |  s ,A  ??#" `?M  |   s ,A ??#" `?p=(]  |   s ,A ??#" `? z  z   0A ? ?"` N    >A ? ?#" `?V Zv    P  s *޽h ?"` 3D<___PPT10..+D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D~' =%(D&' =4@BBBB%(D' =?B70, 0; .2, .5; .8, .5; 1, 0-g6B fade*<3<*D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*)?+ O] ) $(  $~ $ s *dL  j   ~ $ s *8M M   ^ $ 6pp^ $ 6^ $ 6p $ S A ??#" `?"- ^ $ 6p  $ S A ??#" `?  ^  $ 6p  $ S A ??#" `?   P $ s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' |= @B + O_ @* 8n(  8~ 8 s *c   `}    8 s *d  <$@  0   ^ 8 6pp^ 8 6^ 8 6^ 8 6 8 S A ??#" `?-8 $D  0  80 3 tA  ? ?#" `?  H  $D  0   8 >A= ? ?#" `? +8 $D  0P 8 s *޽h ?"` 3TL___PPT10,..+az-D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 8%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 8D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 8D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8+p OW :2( (   ~  s *   `}     s *  <$@  0     0  hA ??#" `?gm   ^  6pp^  6  0  hA ? ?#" `?d H $D  0     >AL ? ?#" `? 8 $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+ٌ*D~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* AO%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* AOD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* AOD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* R%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* RD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* RD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + OX  ) (   ~  s *T   `}   ~  s *(       0  hAB ? ?#" `? K    ^  6pp^  6  0  hA= ? ?#" `?p'    P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +V  O` *P4(  P~ P s *ȹ  j    P s *ĺ M <$D  0   ^ P 6pp^ P 6P P s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*P3b%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*P3bD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*P3bDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Pd%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*PdD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Pd+u Ol xP,(  ~  s *  j   ~  s *l M    ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + Oa * Xz(  X~ X s *  j    X s * M <$@  0   ^ X 6pp^ X 6 X >AA Q? ?#" `?Z 8 Q$D  0  X >AM ? ?#" `?) zAW 8 $D  0  X >AC Y? ?#" `?/ a{] 8 Y$@  0P X s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10|..+94DD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*XT%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*XTD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*XTD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*X%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*XD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*XD ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*X%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*XD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*XD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* X%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* XD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* XD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* X%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* XD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* X+ Ob *`z(  `~ ` s *,  j   ~ ` s * M    ^ ` 6pp^ ` 6 `0 3 tAF ]? ?#" `?  ]   ` >AE `? ?#" `?c 0 7 f  `P ` s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +6 Oc vn* h(  h~ h s *  j    h s *| M <$@  0   ^ h 6pp^ h 6  h0 3 tAD f? ?#" `?  e H f$@  0    h >AG h? ?#" `?)  < + 8 h$D  0P h s *޽h ?"` 3h ` ___PPT10@ ..+7ġD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*hw%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*hwD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*hwD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* hD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* hD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* hD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* h+V  Od +p4(  p~ p s * 4  j    p s *5 M <$D  0   ^ p 6pp^ p 6P p s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*p8%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*p8D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*p8Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*p9%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*p9D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*p9+  Oe 0+x(  x~ x s *N  j    x s *O M <$D  0   ^ x 6pp^ x 6 x0 3 tAH t? ?#" `?-  t jP x s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*xT%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*xTD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*xT+2Qk $   0, (    3 h "`i N Inflation p*& ^  6p{p  3 xm  k xChmage de long terme u*$ RB  s *D H RB   s *D   0 # nAI x?T?#" `?f MH x$@  0  nB  3 8c) ,$@  0  S s "`z @,$  0 Indexation Partielle.&   04y Z   Courbe de Phillips de long Terme! 2!$  0} J` (Dilemne Inflation / Chmage Long Terme) 2)H   s *@ "`  ,$@   0 &Taux de chmage Structurel ou naturel *'(2% ' B  s *D8c ,$D  0  S  "`,$  0 Indexation Parfaite.& B  s *DI C,$D   0B  s *޽h ? 3''___PPT10&.+IG*D%' = @B D%' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DA' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D-' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*++0+  ++0+  ++0+  ++0+  + Of p+4(  ~  s *  j     s * M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+1;[D~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Lg%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LgD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Lg+u O x01(  ~  s *  j   ~  s *l M    ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +H Oh + J(  ~  s *  j     s * M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6^   6   s ,Au  ??#" `?  E 8  $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3.&___PPT10..+HD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(Dh' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*7%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*7D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*7D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*)%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*)D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*)D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + Os 0-4(  ~  s *xk j   ~  s *TvkM  k ^  6pp^  6  >AK ? ?#" `? J    >AJ ? ?#" `?C-*r  P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +." Og  + (  ~  s *t  j     s *p M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6   >A@ ? ?#" `?: 8 $D  0   >AO ? ?#" `?@ B    >AQ ? ?#" `?G 8 $D  0  >AP ? ?#" `?H  8 $D  0  >AT ? ?#" `?)  k8 $@  0  >AS ? ?#" `? : 8 $@  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..++Dj' = @B D%' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*IT%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*ITD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*IT+ 6 Oi ph+ (    6R8"`:F,$D  0  6R8"` ,$D   0  0R8"`W ,$@  0  s *( <$@  0   ~  s *)  j   ^  6pp 0 3 tAV ? ?#" `?" $H $@  0     0-  g9  D 2   >AU ? ?#" `?S wmU 8 $D  0  >AW ? ?#" `? z 8 $@   0P  s *޽h ?"` 3X.P.___PPT100...+%ݰD-' = @B D-' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*6%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*6D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*6D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*79%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*79D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*79D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*9d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*9dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*9dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*eg%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*egD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*egD ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*g%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*gD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*gD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+ On JB, (  ~  s *DO  j     s *O M <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6 0 3 tAX ? ?#" `?"M B      >AZ ? ?#" `? n 8 $@  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10 ..+jFD ' = @B Ds ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*3`%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*3`D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*3`Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*d+ Oo 80,(  ~  s *k  j     s *l M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6 0 3 tAY ? ?#" `?M b H $@  0    >A[ ? ?#" `? J ; 8 $@  0  >A\ ? ?#" `? ~ ; 8 $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+ZD' = @B DO' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D.' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*j%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*jD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*jD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*k%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*kD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*kD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+ Op  ,(  ~  s *؈  j     s *ԉ M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6 0 3 tA^ ? ?#" `?Cz c      >A_ ? ?#" `?  8 $D  0  >A] ? ?#" `? `  8 $@  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3h ` ___PPT10@ ..+7!usD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*7I%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*7ID' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*7ID' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+X) Oq , (  ~  s *  j     s * M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6 0 3 tAa ? ?#" `?% U 5 H $D  0    >A` ? ?#" `?H \ 8 $D  0   >Ad ? ?#" `? 8 $D  0   >Ac ? ?#" `?% 5 8 $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3#"___PPT10"..+x$ZD"' = @B Da"' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*/j%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*/jD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*/jD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*lD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+. Or nf- (  ~  s *  j     s * M <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6 0 3 tAb ? ?#" `?     >Ae ? ?#" `?]# 8 $D  0   >Af  ? ?#" `?C} s 8  $D  0   >Ag  ? ?#" `?  8  $@   0B   s *D ,$@  0   >Aj ? ?#" `?% 8 $D  0B  s *Dj ,$@  0  >Ai  ? ?#" `?f  v8  $D   0P  s *޽h ?"` 3&&___PPT10%..+R'D%' = @B Dw%' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* &%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* &D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* &D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(r%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(rD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(rD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+n Ot - (   ~   s *@   `}      s *<  ,<$@  0   ^   6pp^   6  0 ZAl  ? ?"`   H  $D  0     6A9  ? ?"` 8  $D  0   6Am  ? ?"` B 8  $D  0P   s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+$XD' = @B Du' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 4g%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 4gD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 4gD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* i}%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* i}D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* i}D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* ~%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* ~D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* ~D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +M Ou XP-((  (~ ( s *   `}   ~ ( s *$      (0  fA>  ? ?"`Cj U    ^ ( 6pp^ ( 6  ( 6An  ? ?"`) -d;    ( 6Aq  ? ?"`c a_u   P ( s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + Ow $0. H(  H~ H s *&   `}    H s *'  <$@  0   ^ H 6pp^ H 6  H 6An  ? ?"`}    H 6Ap  ? ?"`   H 6Ao  ? ?"`6  8  $@  0 H 6A?  ? ?"`6  8  $D  0P H s *޽h ?"` 3h ` ___PPT10@ ..+vD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*H2%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*H2D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*H2D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*H%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*HD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*HD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*H%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*HD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*H+ O 00X(  ~  s *D   `}   ~  s *D      0  fAt  ? ?"`}=    ^  6pp^  6  6As  ? ?"` =Z   P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +  O P0 (  ~  s *\   `}   ~  s *\     ^  6pp^  6  6An  ? ?"` P      6Ap  ? ?"` GE     6Ar  ? ?"`=S   P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +V  O 04(  ~  s *,y   `}     s *(z  <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*:%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*:D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*:Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*;%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*;D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*;+u O x1(  ~  s *  j   ~  s *T M    ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + Oz .`4(  `~ ` s *   `}    ` s *  <$D  0   ^ ` 6pp^ ` 6P ` s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZDh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*`Gr%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*`GrD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*`GrDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*`s%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*`sD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*`sDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*`!%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*`!D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*`!+6 O 0 (  ~  s *   `}     s *  <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6 0  hAB  ? ?#" `?J      >Av  ? ?#" `?c q 8  $D  0   >AR  ? ?#" `?; > 8  $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+8pVD~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*S%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*SD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*SD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +E O PH0(  ~  s *Lj   `}   ~  s * l  l   0  hAR  ? ?#" `?C8   l^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O P1 `(  ~  s *   `}   ~  s *     ^  6pp^  6   >Aw  ? ?#" `?m     >Ay  ? ?#" `? 6      >Ax  ? ?#" `?S # -     >Az  ? ?#" `? M   P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +'NQ $ l d 1&0 (  0b #0 TA| noir)< ,$@   0b 0 NA{ noir) ,$@  0 0 3 ( "`  Fpt( ^ 0 6p{p 0 3 T f > `ut( RB 0 s *D H RB  0 s *D   0 0 JS DLieu d invariance de l inflation..# 2#,  RB  0 s *D8cI B 0 S   "`c ( ,$@  0 <Zone de Hausse de l inflation&", B 0 s *DW6 ,$D  0B 0 0D8c  ,$@  0@ 0 S # "`,6,$@   0 :Zone de Baisse de l inflation&", RB 0 s *D B !0@ s *D ,$@   0B $0 0D8c]`,$D   0 0 3 * :  `Dp=0& %0 3 / c @ ; ,$@  0 `Dp>0& &0 3 X4 zqR,$D  0 `Dp<0&B 0 s *޽h ? 3O@G@___PPT10'@.+#D>' = @B Df>' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D@' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D1' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =-m6Bbox(in)*<3<*0D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =%(Du' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*!0D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*#0D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$0D' =%(D7' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!0D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*!0D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!0%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#0D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*#0D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#0%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%0D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&0+P+0+0  ++0+0  ++0+0  ++0+0  ++0+%0  ++0+&0  +6 O 2 @(  @~ @ s *Q   `}     @ s *R  <$@  0   ^ @ 6pp^ @ 6  @0  hAJ  ? ?#" `?     @ >A}  ? ?#" `?c w 8  $D  0  @ >A~  ? ?#" `? kL *8  $D  0P @ s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+8pVD~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*@N%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*@ND' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*@ND' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* @%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* @D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* @D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*@%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*@D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*@D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* @%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* @D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* @+E O PH02H(  H~ H s *pn   `}    ~ H s *Do     ^ H 6pp^ H 6 H0  hA~  ? ?#" `?jM   lP H s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O  P2 P(  P~ P s *   `}    ~ P s *̄     ^ P 6pp^ P 6 P >Ax  ? ?#" `?S  -     P >A  ? ?#" `? 5  {    P0  hA  ? ?#" `?H     P >A  ? ?#" `?l    P P s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +KNQ $   2\& (  \b \ TZA| noir)s ,$@   0b \ TA{ noir)Z- ,$@  0 \ 3 x "`  Fpt( ^ \ 6p{p \ 3 d f > `ut( RB \ s *D H RB \ s *D   \ 0h JS 8Lieu d invariance du chmage 2> RB  \@ s *D8cs 1  \ S  "` ),$@  0 Zone de Baisse du Chmage&">B  \ s *D ,$D  0B  \ 0D8c ,$@  01 \ S  "`'x ,$@   0 Zone de Hausse du Chmage&">RB \ s *D B \ s *Dw p,$@   0B \ 0D8c 2 ,$D   0 \ 3 |  `Du=0& \ 3 x M %,$@  0 |Du>0B \ 3   ,$D  0 |Du<0BB \ s *޽h ? 3O@G@___PPT10'@.+3D>' = @B Df>' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D@' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\D1' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* \%(D' =-m6Bbox(in)*<3<* \D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* \%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* \D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* \D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* \%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* \D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* \D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*\D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* \D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* \D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* \%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* \D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* \D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* \%(D' =%(Du' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\D' =%(D7' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*\D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*\D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*\D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\+P+0+ \  ++0+ \  ++0+\  ++0+\  ++0+\  ++0+\  +u O xp1 (  ~  s *   `}    ~  s *X     ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +#aQ $ %2$d(  d d 3   "`  Fpt( ^ d 6p{p d 3  f > `ut( RB d s *D H RB d s *D   d 0D JF dDiagramme des Phases 2  B  d@ s *D8c ,$@  0  d S h "`s q8 ,$@  0 Etat Stationnaire&"$ RB d s *D  d 3 X (,$@   0 `Du=0&B d s *D3f8cZ ,$@  0 d 3  = ,$@  0 `Dp=0&B d 0D8c  j,$@  0B d 0D8cPII,$@  0B d 0D8c,$@  0B d 0D8c ) ,$D  0B d 0D8c ,$@   0B d 0D8c D,$@   0B d@ 0D8c) ) ,$@   0B d@ 0D8cP9IP,$D   0B d s *D` s ,$@  0B  d 0D ,$@  0B !d@ 0D ,$@  0 "d0  hA  ? T?#" `? `QH  $@  0   $d >A  ? ?#" `?$B8  $D  0B d s *޽h ? 3PP___PPT10jP.+!0vD^O' = @B DO' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DY' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dDY' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* dD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dDY' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*!dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$dD-' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* dD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* dD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* d%(++0+ d  ++0+ d  ++0+d  ++0+d  +xQ $ 2-5l(  l l 3 < "`  Fpt( ^ l 6p{p l 3 A f > `ut( RB l s *D H RB l s *D  l 0F JF dDiagramme des Phases 2  RB l@ s *D8c RB  l s *D   l 3 K ( `Du=0&RB  l s *D3f8cZ   l 3 P =  `Dp=0&XB l 0D8c  jXB l 0D8cPIIXB l 0D8cXB l 0D8c ) XB l 0D8c XB l 0D8c DXB l@ 0D8c) ) XB l@ 0D8cP9IPXB l 0D XB l@ 0D  l0  hA  ? T?#" `?9       l >A  ? ?#" `?$B  8 l s *Y "` ,$@  0 RSupposons que l conomie soit en ce point* 2* * B l 0D8c ,$D  0  l s *^ "`] ,$@   0 :L inflation devient constante 2  B l s *D ,$D  0B l s *D2 z ,$D  0B  l s *DP 0 ,$D  0B !l s *D] @ #,$@   0B "l s *DJ @,$@   0B $l s *D@ # ,$D  0. %l s *$d "` ,$D  0 HL inflation et le chmage augmentent% 2% %  &l s *h "`q0 ,$@  0 z0Puis l inflation diminue 2  B 'l s *DP ,$D  0B (l s *D CP,$D  0B *l s *D}pp`,$D  0 +l s *m "`C,$@  0 r(Le chmage devient constant, puis baisse) 2) ) B ,l@ s *Dc,$D  0B -l@ s *D` p,$D  0& .l s *r "`S ,$@  0 &On converge l ES  2&   B /l s *DCp,$@  0D 4l s *w "`w" xQuel que soit le point initial, on converge l ES : un puit= 2=&0    & 5l  B CDE4FA8c )!N'&5 @    "` - ,$D  0B l s *޽h ? 3~___PPT10~.+ 0D|' = @B D{' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*lD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*lDD' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*lD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*lD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%lDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*lDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*lDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* lD ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*!lD' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*lD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*lD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%lD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*%lD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%l%(D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*lD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"lD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$lD ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&lD' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*lD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*lD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*l%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*'lDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(lDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<**l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<**lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<**lD' =%(Dn' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&lD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*&lD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&l%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"lD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*"lD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"l%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+lD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,lDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*-l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*-lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*-lD' =%(D4' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+lD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*+lD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+l%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,lD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*,lD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,l%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*/l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*/lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*/lD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*.l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*.lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*.lD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*5l%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*5lD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*5lD-' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*.lD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*.lD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*.l%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*/lD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*/lD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*/l%(++0+l  ++0+l  ++0+l  ++0+l  ++0+%l  ++0+%l  ++0+&l  ++0+&l  ++0++l  ++0++l  ++0+.l  ++0+.l  +  O 1 ((   ~   s *P   `}       s *L  <$@  0     0  fA  ? ?"` * H  $D  0  ^   6pp^   6pipP   s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+̏DB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* In%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* InD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* InD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +7XQ $ {s2!*t(  t t 3   k @p0"  t 3  s RK  Jp*,  t 3   >u0   t 3 0  >u*  u t 3 $ C4  3pw t 3  , 5tempsw t 3   5temps^  t 6p{ps  t 3  ,4 1u  t 0$ :c wDynamique Transitoire 2$  RB  t s *D RB  t s *D  XB t 0Dj jRB t s *D RB t s *D  XB t 0D` `XB t 0D : XB t 0D ^B t 6DV t t 3  ,H  2t1 t  B{CDEFA8cD{@ "` : ,$@  0  t  BCDEFA8c 8L@ "`@  `,$@  0 !t s *X "`p Fv ,$@  0 l Inflation et chmage augmentent !(2! ! B "t s *Dz % ,$@  0B #t@ s *D z s ,$D  0P $t s *d "` I,$@   0 hEn t1, l inflation dpasse son niveau de long terme 5(25 5 B %t s *D z ,$D   0B &t s *D "` ,,$D   0 ZPuis continue d augmenter jusqu une date t2.(2. .  't  BCDEFA8cE<1K%@  "`  ,$@  0 (t  BCDEFA8czD@ "` @,$@  0B )t 6DV ,$@  0 *t 3 T P ,$D  0 2t2B t s *޽h ? 3PCHC___PPT10(C.+={#DA' = @B DgA' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D;' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* tD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*tD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"tD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*!tD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*#tD ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!tD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*!tD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!t%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"tD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*"tD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"t%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#tD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*#tD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#t%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$tD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%tDq' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$tD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*$tD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$t%(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&tD' =%(Du' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(tD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*'tD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*)t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*)tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*)tD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<**t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<**tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<**t+P+0+!t  ++0+!t  ++0+$t  ++0+$t  ++0+&t  ++0+*t  +R;Q $ <43!2|(  | | 3 ! "`  Fpt( ^ | 6p{p | 3 & f > `ut( RB | s *D H RB | s *D  | 0,+ JF dDiagramme des Phases 2  RB |@ s *D8c RB  | s *D   | 3 H0 ( `Du=0&RB  | s *D3f8cZ   | 3 P5 =  `Dp=0&XB  | 0D8c  jXB | 0D8cPIIXB | 0D8cXB | 0D8c ) XB | 0D8c XB | 0D8c DXB |@ 0D8c) ) XB |@ 0D8cP9IPXB | 0D XB |@ 0D  |0  hA  ? T?#" `?9       | >A  ? ?#" `?$B  B | s *DS ,$D  0B | s *DM p,$D  0B | s *DP 0 ,$D  0B | s *D] @ #,$D  0B !| s *D@ # ,$D  0P /| s *,@ "` ,$@  0 hEn t1, l inflation dpasse son niveau de long terme 5(25 5 B 0| s *DW ,$D  0 1| s *DE "`w YI,$@   0 En t2, l inflation est constante, le chmage est toujours en dessous de son niveau de long terme b(2b b B 2|@ s *D m,$D   0B | s *޽h ? 3((___PPT10(.+@HD'' = @B D'' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*|%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*|D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*|Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*|%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*|D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*|DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*/|%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*/|D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*/|D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0|%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0|D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0|Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*|%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*|D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*|Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*|%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*|D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*|Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!|%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!|D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*!|DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*1|%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*1|D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*1|D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*2|%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*2|D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*2|+p+0+/|  ++0+1|  +;Q $  3&,,(    3 ]  k @p0"   3 |b s RK  Jp*,   3 g  >u0    3 k  >u*  u  3 p C4  3pw  3 s , 5tempsw  3 En t4, le chmage devient constant, puis commence de dcrotre?(2? ? t + 3 h t$ 2t4B , s *DZ)g,$D   0B  s *޽h ? 3$#___PPT10#.+Z?D"' = @B D"' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&Dq' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*)%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*)D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*)DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<**%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<**D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<**D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,++0+  ++0+  ++0+(  ++0+*  +W7Q $ @3%'M(    3  "`  Fpt( ^  6p{p  3  f > `ut( RB  s *D H RB  s *D   0 JF dDiagramme des Phases 2  RB @ s *D8c RB   s *D    3   ( `Du=0&RB   s *D3f8cZ    3 ( =  `Dp=0&XB   0D8c  jXB  0D8cPIIXB  0D8cXB  0D8c ) XB  0D8c XB  0D8c DXB @ 0D8c) ) XB @ 0D8cP9IPXB  0D XB @ 0D  0  hA  ? T?#" `?9        >A  ? ?#" `?$B  RB  s *DS RB  s *DM pRB  s *DP 0 RB  s *D] @ #RB  s *D@ #   s *< "` ,$D  0 3En t3, le chmage dpasse son niveau de long terme 4(24 4 B  s *D"W ,$@  0&   s * "`M ,$@  0 >En t4, le chmage devient constant, puis commence dcrotre ?(2? ? B " s *DP  ,$D  0B # s *D` ",$D  0B % s *DPC,$D  0B & s *D2,$D  0B '@ s *D,$D   0B  s *޽h ? 34$,$___PPT10 $.+97Dp#' = @B D+#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*#DA' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*'+p+0+  ++0+   + KQ $ 1)`3).(    3   k @p0"   3 D    Jp*,   3   >u0    3    >u*  u  3 x C4  3pw  3  , 5tempsw  3   5temps^   6p{ps   3  ,4 1u   0 ~c wDynamique Transitoire 2$  RB   s *D RB   s *D  RB  s *D8cj jRB  s *D RB  s *D  XB  0D` `RB  s *D8c  XB  0D ^B  6DV t  3 ,! ,H  2t1  # B{CDEF8cD{@ "` :   # BCDEF8c 8L@ "`@  `  # BCDEF8cE<1K%@  "`    # BCDEF8czD@ "` @^B  6DV t  3 l& P  2t2  # BC DEF8c&8q&LG @  "` ) ^B  6DV&&t  3 * { 2t3   # BQC{DEF8c{z-Q@  "`, ^B ! 6DVt % 3 D/ t$ 2t4 '  BHC\DE(FA8c )MS >H\2>A> @   "`,,$D  0 (  BCDEFA8c[N @  "`  ,$@  0x ) s *3 "`w } ,$@  0 vRemarque 1 On a sur-ajustement de l inflation et du chmage<(2<&   B * 0D8c=2,$@  0B + 0D8c  ,$D  0 , s *8 "`)  ,$@   0 &Remarque 2 : On peut observer durant la transition t1-t2, une hausse simultane de l inflation et du chmage n(2n n B - s *D  ,$D   0B .@ s *D  @  ,$@   0B  s *޽h ? 3p1h1___PPT10H1.+=D<0' = @B D/' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*'D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*)%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*)D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*)D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<**%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<**D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<**D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*)D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*)D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*)%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<**D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<**D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<**%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*+D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*.%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*.D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*.D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*-%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*-D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*-D' =%(D' =%(D3' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =?B70, 0; .2, .5; .8, .5; 1, 0-g6B fade*<3<*,D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*,)?++0+)  ++0+)  ++0+,  ++0+,  + O 04(  ~  s *Q   `}      s *R  <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZDh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%?%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%?D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%?+u O x3(  ~  s *pk  j    ~  s *Dl M    ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +  O{ |t. h(  h~ h s *z   `}    ~ h s *{  Y   ^ h 6pp^ h 6  h0  hA3  ??#" `?  H  $D  0  P h s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+h D|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* hD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* h+ O `X3(  ~  s *`   `}      s *\  <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6  6A  ? ?"`  8  $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+SD' = @B DO' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D.' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*W%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*WD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*WD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*)%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*)D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*)D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<**u%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<**uD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<**uD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*uw%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*uwD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*uwD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+  O 34(  ~  s *   `}      s *  <$@  0   ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+1;[DB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*2H%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*2HD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*2HD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Ig%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*IgD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Ig+> O 04 0(  ~  s *   `}      s *  <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6  0  hAR  ? ?#" `?  H  $D  0  P  s *޽h ?"` 3>6___PPT10..+:D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*p%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*pD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*pDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*q%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*qD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*qDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+ O &P4(  ~  s *   `}    ~  s *     ^  6pp^  6  >A~  ? ?#" `?jM     P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +bQ $  p4.(     3  9 `Du=0&   3 H M % `Dp=0&  3   "`  Fpt( ^  6p{p  3  f > `ut( RB  s *D H RB  s *D   0\ JF vPolitique Montaire  2$  RB @ s *D8cz  RB   s *D RB   s *D3f8cZ) XB  0D XB @ 0D%  %  0  hA  ? T?#" `?9  L     >A  ? ?#" `?   B " s *D3f8c F ,$@  0B # s *D ,$@  0B $ s *D W ,$D  0B %@ s *D8cWc ,$@  0B & s *D)@,$@  0B ' s *D] 6 ,$D  0 ( s * "` '3 ,$@  0 eNouvel Etat Stationnaire (2  B ) s *D@ ,$@   0 * >A  ? ?#" `?8  $@   0B +@ 0D@ @,$D   0@ , s *X "`Q ",$@  0 >L Economie se situe en ce point (2 &   B - s *DS  ,$@  02 . s *"` S ,$D  0B  s *޽h ? 3P~P___PPT10^P.+GDO' = @B D}O' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*#D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*'D' =%(Du' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*)%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*)D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*)D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<**%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<**D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<**D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+D' =%(Dt' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*&D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*'D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*#D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*$D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*-%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*-D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*-D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*.%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*.D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*.+p+0+(  ++0+,  +7Q $ 4$0 (    3 0@ ( `Du=0&  3 D "`  Fpt( ^  6p{p  3 I f > `ut( RB  s *D H RB  s *D    0DO JF vPolitique Montaire  2$  RB   s *D XB   0D XB @ 0D%  %  0  hA  ? T?#" `?9  L   RB  s *D3f8c F RB @ s *D8cWc   >A  ? ?#" `?  XB @ 0D@ @`2  s *"` S   3 |V  Z `Dp=0&  >A  ? ?#" `?   XB  0D8cII|XB  @ 0D8c9IXB ! 0D8c  jXB " 0D8c DXB # 0D8cm==XB $ 0D8c={ XB & 0D8c  XB '@ 0D8c  B ( s *D ,$D  0B ) s *D# q,$D  0B * s *D` ,$D  0B + s *D b,$D  0B , s *D # ,$D  0B - s *DP  ,$D  0B . s *D ,$D  0RB / s *D3f8c F B 0 s *D @,$D   0B  s *޽h ? 3 %%___PPT10$.+~̒D$' = @B Dq$' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*)%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*)D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*)Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<**%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<**D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<**Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*-%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*-D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*-Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*.%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*.D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*.Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0+JQ $ RJ5$((    3 s  k Ap*1"   3 w 6   Kp*2,   3 |  >u0    3 D  >u*  u  3 8 C4  3pw  3 $ , 5tempsw  3 ܌  5temps^   6p{ps   3  ,4 1u   08 ~F uPolitique Montaire 2$  RB   s *D RB   s *D  RB  s *D8cj jRB  s *D RB  s *D  XB  0D` `B  s *D8c  ,$D  0RB  s *D8c ^B  6DV t  3  ,H  2t1^B  6DV t  3 < P  2t2^B  6DV&&t  3 h { 2t3L  # BZCDELF$8cf>8$G1 '* #  .g  Z@      "`Swn,$D  0  # B CDE(F8c ;v7k<[TM  / k @   "`S ,$D  0   s * "`w cc,$@  0 }1En t1, le chmage devient constant, puis augmente2(22 2 F ! s *$ "` ,$@  0 ^En t0,le chmage baisse et l inflation augmente0(20 0 B " s *Dg,$@  0B # s *D j ,$D  0B $@ s *DM ",$D   0T % s * "` ,$@   0 lEn t2, l inflation excde son nouvel tat stationnaire7(27 7 B & s *D p ,$D   0 ' s * "`mZY,$@   0 En t3, l inflation devient constante, puis diminue pour rejoindre l ESG(2G&D   B (@ s *DC&S ,$D   0B  s *޽h ? 3.4&4___PPT104.+D2' = @B D2' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*!D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*#DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*'D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(++0+   ++0+!  ++0+%  ++0+'  +.%Q $ f^4!7(    3   k Ap*1"   3  6   Kp*2,   3   >u0    3 D  >u*  u  3 8 C4  3pw  3 $ , 5tempsw  3   5temps^   6p{ps   3  ,4 1u   08 ~F uPolitique Montaire 2$  RB   s *D RB   s *D  RB  s *D8cj jRB  s *D RB  s *D  XB  0D` `RB  s *D8c  RB  s *D8c ^B  6DV t  3 ( ,H  2t1^B  6DV t  3 ( P  2t2^B  6DV&&t  3 L( { 2t3 .  BZCDELF$A8cf>8$G1 '* #  .g  Z@      "`Swn 0  B CDE(FA8c ;v7k<[TM  / k @   "`S  1 s *( "` %Neutalit de la politique Montaire &(2&   RB 2 s *Dc}4 3 s *( "`6 " ,$@  0 >Sur-ajustement de l inflation  (2   B 4 s *D  F ,$D  0. 5 s *( "` ,$@  0 FHausse de l inflation et du chmage$(2$ $ B 7 6DԔ & ,$D  0B  s *޽h ? 3\T___PPT104.+]h@D' = @B DS' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*3%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*3D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*3D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*4%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*4D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*4DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*5%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*5D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*5D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*7%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*7D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*7+p+0+3(  ++0+5(  + O 34(  ~  s *'(   `}  (    s *((  <$D  0 (  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZDh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*C%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*CD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*CDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*C%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*CD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*C+ O 054(  ~  s *A(   `}  (    s *B(  <$D  0 (  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZDh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+V  O P54(  ~  s *L[(   `}  (    s *H\(  <$D  0 (  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+V  O 44(  ~  s * t(   `}  (    s *u(  <$D  0 (  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*DD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*DDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*d+0 O 5 0(   x   c $܌(   `}  (  x   c $(  (  H   0޽h ? 380___PPT10.+D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D~' =%(D&' =4@BBBB%(D' =?B70, 0; .2, .5; .8, .5; 1, 0-g6B fade*<3<* D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<* )?+P 5 ((  (x ( c $L(   (   ( 0Ğ(     Edmund Phelps 24     ( 0(  /  YMilton Friedman 2   ( S LA 061116Milton Friedman [   U 0  ( S <Aedmund-phelps"`    U 0H ( 0޽h ? 3___PPT10i. +D=' = @B + O p54(  ~  s *T(   `}  (    s *P(  <$D  0 (  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+V  O 504(  0~ 0 s *(   `}  (   0 s *(  <$D  0 (  ^ 0 6pp^ 0 6P 0 s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0H%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0HD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0H+V  O 584(  8~ 8 s *(   `}  (   8 s *(  <$D  0 (  ^ 8 6pp^ 8 6P 8 s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*89%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*89D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*89Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8:%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8:D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8:+V  O 6 @4(  @~ @ s *(   `}  (   @ s *(  <$D  0 (  ^ @ 6pp^ @ 6P @ s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*@%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*@D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*@Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*@f%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*@fD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*@f+ O 6x4(  x~ x s *4+   `}  +   x s *0+  <$D  0 +  ^ x 6pp^ x 6P x s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*x%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*xD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*x+V  O 06H4(  H~ H s *0+   `}  +   H s *1+  <$D  0 +  ^ H 6pp^ H 6P H s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*H%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*HD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*HDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Hs%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*HsD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Hs+V  O p6X4(  X~ X s *I+   `}  +   X s *J+  <$D  0 +  ^ X 6pp^ X 6P X s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*X%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*XD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*XDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Xu%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*XuD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Xu+V  O 74(  ~  s *c+  j  +    s *d+ M7<$D  0 +  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*=%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*=D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*=Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*>a%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*>aD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*>a+u O x07(  ~  s *Hv+  j  +  ~  s *w+ M  +  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O 6`(  `~ ` s *l+   `}  +  ~ ` s *@+   +  ^ ` 6pp^ ` 6 ` 6A  ? 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(    3 (+ "`  Fpt( ^  6p{p  3 $+ f > `ut( RB  s *D H RB  s *D   08+ JS ~Courbe de Phillips Augmente 2$ RB   s *D XB   0D   0  hA  ? T?#" `?9 B   + B  s *D8c- ,$@  0B # s *D3f8cj ,$@  0 % s *+ "`Zz,$@  0 _Courbe de Court terme 2  B &@ s *D /,$D  0 ' s *+ 3f"`m,$@  0 ^Courbe de Long terme 2  B (@ s *D`,$D  0B  s *޽h ? 3___PPT10.+{LD$' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*#D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*'D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(+p+0+%+  ++0+'+  + O 74(  ~  s *+   `}  +    s *+  <$@  0 +  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+1;[D~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*R%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*RD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*RD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*k%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*kD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*kDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*k%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*kD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*k+7Q $ #  8 (    3 3 9  ,$D  0 Fu1(   3 L3 9 m ,$D   0 Fu2(   3 P 3 "`  Fpt( ^  6p{p  3 $3 f > `ut( RB  s *D H RB  s *D   0t)3 JS @Hausse de l Inflation Anticipe ! 2!6  RB  s *D XB   0D   0  hA  ? T?#" `?9 B   3 RB   s *D8cP RB   s *D3f8cj B  6D8cCIC,$@  0B  s *D8cZt ,$@  0B  0D8c}z `,$@  0B  0D8cF ) ,$@  0B  6D8cCz z ,$@  0B  6D8cp 8 ,$@  0B  0D8cV @ V ,$@   0%  s *33 "`0 ,$D   0 ?Pour une mme inflation, le taux de chmage compatible augmente@ 2@ @ B  s *޽h ? 3))___PPT10).+D(' = @B D(' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*DY' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*++0+3  ++0+3  ++0+3  +u O x7(  ~  s *M3   `}  3  ~  s *TN3   3  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O 74(  ~  s *c3   `}  3    s *d3  <$D  0 3  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+; O F> 8 (  ~  s *L|3   `}  3  ^  6pp^  6  6Ak  ? ?"`6  H      nAFigure13"`M 3 P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +qQ $ 8,"(     3 P3  # { ,$@   0 Fu2(   3 3 "`@/ ,$D   0 Fp2(   3 3    Fu1(   3 З3 "`2  Fp1(   3 03 "`  Fpt( ^  6p{pRB  s *D H RB  s *D    03 JS NL instabilit de la courbe de Phillips ( 2($ RB   s *D XB   0D   0  hA  ? T?#" `?9 B   3 B   s *D8cz 5 ,$@  0RB  s *D3f8cj RB  s *D8cZt XB  0D XB @ 0D `2  s *"`    0p3  " Wpa1$ 2  B  0D ,$@   0B  0D ,$@  02  s *"`m~  ,$@  0 ! 0D3 0 }  Wpa2$ 2  B " s *D8cz E ,$@  02 # s *"`% & ,$D  0B $ s *D8ct ,$@  02 % s *"` ,$D  02 * s *"` P C,$D  02 + s *"` 3,$D  02 , s *"` ~  ,$D  0B  s *޽h ? 3_____PPT10_.+MD^' = @B D;^' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(DM' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(Df' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =%(DM' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*!D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*#Dd' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*"D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%Dd' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*$D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$%(Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<**%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<**D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<**Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,++0+ 3  ++0+3  ++0+3  ++0+!3  +1Q $ R J 9! (    3 p3 "`  Fpt( ^  6p{pRB  s *D H RB   s *D    03 JS NL instabilit de la courbe de Phillips ( 2($ RB   s *D XB   0D   0  hA  ? T?#" `?9 B   3 B  s *D8cZ ,$D  0RB  s *D3f8cj B  s *D8ct ,$D  0  003 L %,$   0 Wpa1$ 2    0,3 0 } ,$  0 Wpa4$ 2  B  s *D8c-I ,$D  0B  s *D8c}S ,$D  0   03 @Z `,$  0 Wpa2$ 2   ! 0$3 ] ",$  0 Wpa3$ 2  B  s *޽h ? 3&&___PPT10%.+ȺD$' = @B D$' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*!D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*++0+3  ++0+7  ++0+ 7  ++0+!7  + O `84(  ~  s * 7   `}  7    s * 7  <$D  0 7  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*M%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*MD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*M+ O @84(  ~  s *8%7   `}  7    s *4&7  <$D  0 7  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZDh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*DD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*DDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*K%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*KD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*K+ O `X8(  ~  s *>7   `}  7    s *n <$D  0 7  ^  6pp^  6  6A  ? ?"` 8  $@  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10 ..+`2D ' = @B Ds ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 0+ O  9d(  ~  s *R7   `}  7    s *S7  <$@  0 7   0  fA  ? ?"`  7 ^  6pp^  6  6A  ? ?"` 8  $D  0  6A  ? ?"` -8  $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+mSD~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*/@%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*/@D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*/@D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Aw%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*AwD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*AwD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+\ O `X@9 (   ~   s *Dp7   `}  7     s *@q7  <$@  0 7  ^   6pp^   6   6A  ? ?"` = 8  $D  0   6A  ? ?"`tC  7    6A  ? ?"`9 b N8  $@  0   6A " ? ?"`  |8 " $D  0P   s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10|..+TDD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* P%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* PD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* PD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +  O nf`9 (  ~  s *7   `}  7    s *7  <$D  0 7  ^  6pp^  6  0  `A # ? ?"`'U  # 7 P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*o%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*oD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*o+" O ( 9(  ~  s *7   `}  7    s *7  <$@  0 7   0  fA % ? ?"`P  % 7 ^  6pp^  6  6A * ? ?"` ( 8 * $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+? DB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+ O ( 9$(  $~ $ s *7   `}  7   $ s *7  <$@  0 7   $0  fA 6 ? ?"`CM V  6 7 ^ $ 6pp^ $ 6 $ 6A 9 ? ?"`F  Y 8 9 $D  0P $ s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10 ..+? D ' = @B Ds ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$+  O tl9 ,(  ,~ , s *7   `}  7   , s *7  <$D  0 7  ^ , 6pp^ , 6 ,0  fA < ? ?"``wv < 7 P , s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,V%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,VD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,V+  O 984(  8~ 8 s *7   `}  7   8 s *7  <$@  0 7  ^ 8 6pp^ 8 6P 8 s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+1;[DB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8;L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8;LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8;LD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8L+u O x:`(  `~ ` s *G  j  G  ~ ` s *G M  G  ^ ` 6pp^ ` 6P ` s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +f O : @X(  @~ @ s *!G   `}  G  ~ @ s *!G   G   @0  fA H ? ?"`m H H $D  0 G ^ @ 6pp^ @ 6 @ 6A P ? ?"`M  Q 8 P $D  0 @ 6A K ? ?"``M r8 K $D  0  @0  fA N ? ?"`S ei H N $D  0 G P @ s *޽h ?"` 3>6___PPT10..+d>D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*@%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*@D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*@Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*@%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*@D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*@Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* @%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* @D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* @Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*@%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*@D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*@+ O `X:h(  h~ h s *0+B#style.visibility<*hG%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*hGD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*hGD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*hD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*hD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*hP%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*hPD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*hPD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*hR%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*hRD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*hRD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*h%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*hD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*h+  O : p^(  p~ p s *XG   `}  G   p s *YG  <$@  0 G  ^ p 6pp^ p 6 p0  `A S ? ?"`] S G   p 6A V ? ?"`` _ r8 V $D  0  p 6A Y ? ?"` _ 8 Y $D  0P p s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+8pVD~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*p:%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*p:D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*p:D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* p%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* pD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* pD4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*p=y%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*p=yD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*p=yD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* p%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* pD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* p+ O : xR(  x~ x s *tG   `}  G  ~ x s *uG   G  ^ x 6pp^ x 6 x 6A \ ? ?"`    \  x0  `A Z ? ?"`  Z G P x s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +#9Q $   P;,n (    3 XG "`I,$@  0 fpt=pF  ^  6p{pRB  s *D H RB   s *D8    0DG  |Ancticipations Adaptatives 2$  ! 0G  }  Mtemps 2  B " s *D8c,$D  0 # s *hG "`,$D  0 kHypothse : inflation constante (2   B % 0D9 ,$@  0B & s *D =,$@  08 ' s *G "`IFO,$D  0 PHypothse : Date 1 erreur d anticipation)(2) )  (  B CDEFA8c.x<6  @  "`G` ,$@  0 *  BNCDEFA8c/: -N@  "`g ,$@   0 + s *G "`F -f ,$D   0 x,Processus d Ajustement(2  Z , s *G "`P  ,$D   0 XProcessus d Ajustement avec beta plus faible-(2-&    B  s *޽h ? 3++___PPT10+.+Ds*' = @B D.*' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*#DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*'DA' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+DA' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<**%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<**D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<**D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,++0+G  ++0+#G  ++0+'G  ++0++G  ++0+,G  + O ;4(  ~  s *hG   `}  G    s *dG  <$D  0 G  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*o%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*oD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*o+D  O ; 0(  ~  s *(G   `}  G  ~  s *G   G   0  fA f ? ?"`m  f G ^  6pp^  6  6A g ? ?"`M  Q  g   6A h ? ?"``M r h   0  fA i ? ?"`S ei  i G    6A j ? ?"` -  j P  s *޽h ?"` 3D<___PPT10..+D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D~' =%(D&' =4@BBBB%(D' =?B70, 0; .2, .5; .8, .5; 1, 0-g6B fade*<3<* D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<* )?+ O 0; p(  ~  s *G   `}  G  ~  s *G   G  ^  6pp^  6  6A l ? ?"`JDz 8 l $D  0   6A o ? ?"` J5} 8 o $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+D ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +u O xp;(  ~  s *Q   `}  Q  ~  s *tQ   Q  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O NF; (  ~  s *(Q   `}  Q    s *)Q  <$@  0 Q  ^  6pp^  6  0  `A ] ? ?"`2J@H ] $D  0 Q    6A ` ? ?"`  8 ` $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3TL___PPT10,..+يD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*o%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*oD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*oD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O ; ^(  ~  s *FQ   `}  Q    s *GQ  <$D  0 Q  ^  6pp^  6 0  `A f ? ?"`Z  f Q    6A i ? ?"`:8 i $D  0   6A n ? ?"` 8 8 n $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+C uDh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*1X%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*1XD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*1XDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O ;^(  ~  s *dQ   `}  Q    s *eQ  <$D  0 Q  ^  6pp^  6  0  `A p ? ?"`PZRp p Q    6A u ? ?"`5Geq 8 u $D  0  6A  ? ?"`) PH 8  $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+f eDh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Na%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*NaD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*NaDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+ O < 4(  ~  s *Do  `}  o   s *Lo <$@  0 o ^  6pp^  6   6A y ? ?"`"w^ y o   6A | ? ?"` Y 8 | $D  0   6A  ? ?"` z M 8  $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+,D~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*);%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*);D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*);D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*=v%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*=vD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*=vD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O 0< l(  ~  s *Q   `}  Q    s *Q  <$@  0 Q    0  `A  ? ?"`WZbh  Q ^  6pp^  6  0  `A  ? ?"`5   Q    6A  ? ?"`  8  $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+{MDB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Th%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*ThD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*ThD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O P< (  ~  s *Q   `}  Q  ~  s *Q   Q    0  `A  ? ?"`  Q ^  6pp^  6  0  `A  ? ?"`S <r   Q P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +| O \T= (  ~  s *Q  j  Q  ~  s *Q M  Q  ^  6pp^  6  >A@  ? ?#" `?  8  $D  0  >AO  ? ?#" `?j     >A  ? ?#" `?  8  $D  0   >A  ? ?#" `? t 8  $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+r}Dh' = @B D#' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+l O p<4(  ~  s *+B#style.visibility<*8%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*8:%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*8:D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*8:D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*:Z%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*:ZD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*:Z+u O x=$(  $~ $ s *,d  j  d  ~ $ s *d M  d  ^ $ 6pp^ $ 6P $ s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +8 O >6= (  ~  s *d   `}  d    s *d  <$@  0 d  ^  6pp^  6  0  hA  ? ?#" `?   d    >AS  ? ?#" `?  8  $D  0P  s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10z ..+kZDB ' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*GV%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*GVD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*GVD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* +E O PH = (  ~  s *l-d   `}  d  ~  s *@.d   d  ^  6pp^  6 0  hA  ? ?#" `?C   d P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +V  O @= 4(   ~   s *Cd   `}  d     s *Dd  <$D  0 d  ^   6pp^   6P   s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*  %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*  D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*  Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*  |%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*  |D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*  |+V  O >\4(  \~ \ s *\d   `}  d   \ s *]d  <$D  0 d  ^ \ 6pp^ \ 6P \ s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\LDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*\c%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*\cD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*\c+ O TL>d(  d~ d s *4ud   `}  d   d s *0vd  <$@  0 d  ^ d 6pp^ d 6 d0  fA  ? ?"` j H  $D  0 d  d 6A  ? ?"`  8  $D  0P d s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10 ..+,D ' = @B Ds ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*dDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*d%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*dD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*d+@ O :2=,(  ,~ , s *d   `}  d   , s *d  <$D  0 d   ,0  fA  ? ?"`` H  $@  0 d ^ , 6ppP , s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+ DN' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DT' =%(%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,+Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,3%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,3D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,3+u O x>l(  l~ l s *Ld  j  d  ~ l s * d M  d  ^ l 6pp^ l 6P l s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +  O = 4^(  4~ 4 s *d   `}  d   4 s *d  <$@  0 d  ^ 4 6pp^ 4 6  40  `A  ? ?"`}  d   4 6A  ? ?"`  8  $D  0  4 6A  ? ?"` Je8  $D  0P 4 s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+,D~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*4Fr%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*4FrD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*4FrD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 4%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 4D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 4D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*4t%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*4tD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*4tD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* 4%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* 4D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* 4+  O >t(  t~ t s *8d   `}  d  ~ t s * d   d  ^ t 6pp^ t 6 t 6A  ? ?"`p-JZ   d P t s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +h O NF? |(  |~ | s *A  ? ?#" `?  S    | >A  ? ?#" `?w  ]     |0  `A  ? ?"`:H  $@  0 d   | 6A  ? ?"`s  8  $D  0P | s *޽h ?"` 3  ___PPT10 ..+W?Db ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DT' =%(%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* |%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* |D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* |D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* |%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* |D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* |+GNQ $   @?" (  b  TA| noir)< ,$@   0b  NA{ noir) ,$@  0  3  m "`  Fpt( ^  6p{p  3 m f > `ut( RB  s *D H RB  s *D    0$m JS :Lieu d invariance du Chmage  2> RB   s *D8cI 1   S xm "`c ( ,$@  0 Zone de Baisse du Chmage&">B   s *DW6 ,$D  0B   0D8c  ,$@  01  S t m "`,6,$@   0 Zone de Hausse du Chmage&">RB  s *D B @ s *D ,$@   0B  0D8c6f,$D   0  3 'm :  `Du=0&  3 ,m c @ ; ,$@  0 |Du>0B  3 3m zqR,$D  0 |Du<0BB  s *޽h ? 3O@G@___PPT10'@.+3D>' = @B Df>' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D@' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D1' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =-m6Bbox(in)*<3<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =%(Du' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =%(D7' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+P+0+ m  ++0+ m  ++0+m  ++0+m  ++0+m  ++0+m  +  O ? ^(  ~  s *Rm   `}  m    s *Sm  <$@  0 m  ^  6pp^  6  6A  ? ?"`C b8  $D  0  0  `A  ? ?"`  H  $D  0 m    6A  ? ?"`  P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+YD~' = @B D9' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Jw%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*JwD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*JwD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*y%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*yD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*yD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+7 O B:?(  ~  s *pm   `}  m  ~  s *pm   m  ^  6pp^  6 0  `A  ? ?"`w   m P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O ? T(  ~  s *m   `}  m  ~  s *؇m   m  ^  6pp^  6  >A ? ?#" `?     >A  ? ?#" `?w  ]      6A ? ?"`ms  m    6A ? ?"`s   P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +'NQ $ l d ? (    3 ܟm  ,$@  0 `Dp>0&b  TZA| noir)s ,$@   0b  TA{ noir)Z- ,$@  0  3 hm "`  Fpt( ^  6p{p  3  `ut( RB  s *D H RB  s *D     0m JS @Lieu d invariance de l inflation! 2!,  RB  @ s *D8cs @   S m "` ),$@  0 :Zone de Hausse de l Inflation&", B   s *D ,$D  0B   0D8c ,$@  0@  S Pm "`'x ,$@   0 :Zone de Baisse de l Inflation&", RB  s *D B  s *Dw p,$@   0B  0D8c  ,$D   0  3 \m  `Dp=0&  3 Xm p ,$D  0 `Dp<0&B  s *޽h ? 3O@G@___PPT10'@.+3D>' = @B Df>' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D@' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D1' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =-m6Bbox(in)*<3<* D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =%(Du' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =%(D7' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+P+0+m  ++0+ m  ++0+ m  ++0+m  ++0+m  ++0+m  +u O x@(  ~  s *m   `}  m  ~  s *dm   m  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +/aQ $ 1) @(    3 m "`  Fpt( ^  6p{p  3  m f > `ut( RB  s *D H RB  s *D   0z JF dDiagramme des Phases 2  B @ s *D8c ,$@  0   S (z "`s q8 ,$@  0 Etat Stationnaire&"$ RB   s *D    3  z jJ B,$D  0 `Du=0&B   s *D3f8cZ ,$@  0   3  z <F,$@   0 `Dp=0&B  0D8c p,$@  0B  0D8c` w`,$@  0B  6ZD8c= ,$@  0B  0D8c) # ) ,$@  0B  6D8cz z `,$@   0B  0D8c  ,$@   0B  0D8c ) ,$@   0B  0D8cP  `,$D   0B  s *D` s ,$@  0B  0D ,$@  0B @ 0D ,$@  0 0  hA ? T?#" `? `QH $@  0 z   >A ? ?#" `?$B8 $D  0B  s *޽h ? 3PP___PPT10jP.+{1D^O' = @B DO' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DY' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* DY' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*DY' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D-' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<* D' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(++0+ z  ++0+ z  ++0+ z  ++0+ z  +xQ $ @-21(    3 ;z "`  Fpt( ^  6p{p  3 @z f > `ut( RB  s *D H RB  s *D   0Ez JF dDiagramme des Phases 2  RB @ s *D8c RB   s *D    3 Jz J o `Du=0&RB   s *D3f8cZ    3 Oz <F `Dp=0&XB  0D8c pXB  0D8c` w`^B  6ZD8c= XB  0D8c) # ) ^B  6D8cz z `XB  0D8c  XB  0D8c ) XB  0D8cP  `XB  0D XB @ 0D  0  hA ? T?#" `? `Q  z   >A ? ?#" `?$B B  6D8c  ,$D  0  >A ? ?#" `?c f 8 $@  0  C B CDEFA8c v @  "` ,$D  08  C B~C?DE4FA8c ~?~~Q$S[nL=1Lt @    "`Z ,$D  0    BCDEFA8cW9@  "`] & ,$D  0B ! 0D8c & ,$D  0B " 0D8c%  ,$D  0B # 0D8cCCp,$D   0B $ 0D8c ,$D   0B % 0D8c< ,$D   0B & 0D8c m ,$D   0  ' # BCDEF8cW9@  "`] & ,$D   0B ( 0D8c m ,$D  0B + 0D8c ,$D  0B , 0D8cP n,$D  0B - 0D8c 2 ~,$D  0B . 0D8c` 3,$D  0 / S |`z "`v'x,$@  0 Trajectoire selle&"$ B 0 s *D CI,$@  0( 1 C BCDE(FA8c k$ss>G5t @   "` ,$@  0( 2 C BTC DE(FA8c qsMs"A` FT  @   "`P ,$D  0B  s *޽h ? 3\\___PPT10e\.+D\' = @B D[' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*!Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*#Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*'Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*(%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*(D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*(Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*-%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*-D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*-Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*.%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*.D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*.D' =%(Du' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*/%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*/D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*/D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*1%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*1D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*1D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*2%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*2D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*2+8+0+/z  +%Q $ s k @' (    3 dz 9  @p0"   3 (z 6   Jp*,   3 z R >u0    3 z  >u*  u  3 z C4  3pw  3 z , 5tempsw  3 @z  5temps^   6p{ps   3 Dz ,4 1u   0z ~9 [ Ajustement  2  RB   s *D RB   s *D  RB  s *D8cP PRB  s *D RB  s *D  XB  0DZRB  s *D8c  t  3  z ,H  2t1t  3 Pz P  2t2t  3  z { 2t3XB % 0Df Zf  &  B C^DE(FA8c    a "\G ^ @   "` ,P,$D  0 '  BkCDE(FA8c ;vz4Zu - k @   "` wf ,$D  0B  s *޽h ? 3F > ___PPT10 .+0!D ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*&%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*&D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*&Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*'%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*'D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*'+V  O @>L4(  L~ L s *z   `}  z   L s *z  <$D  0 z  ^ L 6pp^ L 6P L s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Lf%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LfD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*LfDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Lp%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LpD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Lp+u O xA(  ~  s *z  j  z  ~  s *z M  z  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +  O |t@A (   ~   s *z   `}  z  ~   s *Tz  Y z  ^   6pp^   6  0  hA3 "??#" `?  H "$D  0 z P   s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+(z3D|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* %(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<* D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<* + O  A(  ~  s *t~   `}  ~  ~  s *H~   ~  ^  6pp^  6  6A $? ?"`   $P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +V  O A$4(  $~ $ s *~   `}  ~   $ s *~  <$D  0 ~  ^ $ 6pp^ $ 6P $ s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$(m%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$(mD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$(mDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$n%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$nD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$n+EQ $ ]U`A3(    3 3~  k Ap*1"   3 h8~    Kp*2,   3 <=~  >u0    3 A~ o >u*  u  3 F~ C4  3pw  3 I~ , 5tempsw  3 M~  5temps^   6p{ps   3 Q~ ,4 1u   0HU~ ,g wDynamique Transitoire 2$  RB   s *D RB   s *D  RB  s *D8c RB  s *D RB  s *D  XB  0D` `RB  s *D8cc c B  6DV ,$@  0  3 \~ ,H ,$D  0 1T $ s *`~ "`,$@  0 cSaut initial du chmage(2  RB * s *D8c : B + s *D8c  ,$@  0B , s *D8c  ,$D  0 -  B C^DE(FA8c ^@nk[[8  @   "` ,},$@  0B .@ s *DM S},$D  0 / s *f~ "` ),$@   0 `Puis hausse continue(2  B 0 s *D ,$D   0 1  B CDE(FA8c  zxa<   @   "`T  ,$@   0$ 2 s *,l~ "` ,,$@   0 <Hausse continue de l Inflation(2  B 3 s *DF ` S ,$D   0B  s *޽h ? 3&33___PPT102.+D1' = @B D1' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*+%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*+D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*,%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*,D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*,DA' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*.%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*.D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*.D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*-%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*-D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*-D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*/%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*/D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*/D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*0%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*0D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*0D ' =%(D ' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*1%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*1D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*1D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*2%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*2D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*2D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*3%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*3D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*3++0+~  ++0+$~  ++0+/~  ++0+2~  +M Q $ P H A, (  , , 3 H~  k Ap*1"  , 3  ~    Kp*2,  , 3 ~  >u0   , 3 ~ o >u*  u , 3 ~ C4  3pw , 3 ~ , 5tempsw , 3 Ȥ~  5temps^  , 6p{ps  , 3 ̨~ ,4 1u  , 0$~ ,g wDynamique Transitoire 2$  RB  , s *D RB  , s *D  RB , s *D8c RB , s *D RB , s *D  XB , 0D` `RB , s *D8cc c ^B , 6DV s , 3 t~ ,H  1TRB , s *D8c : RB , s *D8c  RB , s *D8c   , # B C^DE(F8c ^@nk[[8  @   "` ,} , # B CDE(F8c  zxa<   @   "`T  B , s *޽h ? 3___PPT10i.+D=' = @B + O @4(  ~  s *~   `}  ~    s *~  <$D  0 ~  ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*o%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*oD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*o+u O xA4(  4~ 4 s *0~   `}  ~  ~ 4 s *~   ~  ^ 4 6pp^ 4 6P 4 s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +V  O  B<4(  <~ < s * ~   `}  ~   < s *~  <$D  0 ~  ^ < 6pp^ < 6P < s *޽h ?"` 3R J ___PPT10* ..+qZD ' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*<f'%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*<f'D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*<f'Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*<(%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*<(D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*<(+ O   BD4(  D~ D s *,   `}    D s *(  <$D  0   ^ D 6pp^ D 6P D s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Dg`%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*Dg`D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Dg`+ O @@4(  ~  s *   `}     s *  <$D  0   ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10..+qZD|' = @B D7' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*+B O `>T4(  T~ T s *-   `}    T s *.  <$D  0   ^ T 6pp^ T 6P T s *޽h ?"` 3>6___PPT10..+qZD' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*T5%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*T5D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*T5Dn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*T6f%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*T6fD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*T6fDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Tgk%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*TgkD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*TgkDn' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*Tl%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*TlD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*Tl+u O x`@(  ~  s *0G   `}   ~  s *H     ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B +~kQ  $ ld@B#%L(  L L 3 ]  k Ap*1"  L 3 a    Kp*2,  L 3 f  >u0   L 3 Xk o >u*  u L 3 Lp C4  3pw L 3 8s , 5tempsw L 3 v  5temps^  L 6p{ps  L 3 z ,4 1u  L 0c ,g wDynamique Transitoire 2$  RB  L s *D RB  L s *D  RB L s *D8c RB L s *D RB L s *D  XB L 0D` `RB L s *D8cc c ^B L 6DV s L 3 ܄ ,H  1TRB L s *D8c : RB L s *D8c  RB L s *D8c   L # B C^DE(F8c ^@nk[[8  @   "` ,} L # B CDE(F8c  zxa<   @   "`T   L  BCfDE(FA8c f{E)|j5 @   "` SP,$@  0 L  BCDE(FA8c 5Ekj5{m @   "`[ M  ,$D  0 L s *슂 "``,$D  0 \Encore plus vite(2   L  BC^DEFA8c^7-Z<-@  "` 0 P,$@   0 L  BCDEFA8c->ZSD@  "`6 0 ,$D   0B !L 6D8cM ,$@  0B "L 0D8cc ,$@  0B #L s *D8c ,$@  0B $L s *D8cc Yc ,$D  0r %L s * "` ,$D  0 pSi les agents ajustent instantannment leurs anticipations, la politique montaire est inefficace court terme q(2q&  K B L s *޽h ? 3UU___PPT10~U.+\ځDT' = @B DS' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D ' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD ' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(Dq' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D4' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD ' =%(D' =%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =4@BBBB%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =%(D;' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*"L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*"LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*"LD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*!L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*!LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*!LD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*#L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*#LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*#LD' =4@BBBB%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*$L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*$LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*$LDq' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*LD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*LD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*L%(D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%L%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%LD' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*%LDq' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D ' =+4 8?XCB ppt_xBCB ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*%LD' =+4 8?`CB ppt_yBCB1+ppt_h/2B*Y3>B ppt_y<*%LD' =1:Bhidden*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%L%(+P+0+L  ++0+L  ++0+L  ++0+L  ++0+%L  ++0+%L  +u O x@(  ~  s *ం   `}   ~  s *     ^  6pp^  6P  s *޽h ?"` 3___PPT10u..+D=' = @B + O  `BT(  Tx T c $  p H T 0޽h ? 380___PPT10.+D' = @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(D~' =%(D&' =4@BBBB%(D' =?B70, 0; .2, .5; .8, .5; 1, 0-g6B fade*<3<*T_D' =0l9 BBBB*<3<*T_)?+tP  pBX(  Xx X c $p } p  X 0pV BP  W Lucas, Robert 2   X S FA&lucas_robert_print"`M S  *U 0H X 0޽h ? 3___PPT10i. +D=' = @B + 0 p@  (  @ X @ C     @ S A 0   " H @ 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 D  (  D X D C     D S   0   " H D 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 H  (  H X H C     H S   0   " H H 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 L  (  L X L C     L S   0   " H L 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 P  (  P X P C     P S   0   " H P 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 T  (  T X T C     T S x  0   " H T 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 X  (  X X X C     X S   0   " H X 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 \  (  \ X \ C     \ S   0   " H \ 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 `  (  ` X ` C     ` S   0   " H ` 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 d  (  d X d C     d S   0   " H d 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 h  (  h X h C     h S $  0   " H h 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0  l  (  l X l C     l S <  0   " H l 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 0p  (  p X p C     p S   0   " H p 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 @t  (  t X t C     t S   0   " H t 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 Px  (  x X x C     x S   0   " H x 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  ,(   ^  S      c $4  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  ,(   ^  S      c $)  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  ,(   ^  S      c $\/  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  ,(   ^  S      c $l4  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0   ,(   ^  S      c $9  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0   ,(   ^  S      c $?  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 @  ,(   ^  S      c $Z  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 `  ,(   ^  S      c $D$  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0   ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0   ,(   ^  S      c $TU  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0   ,(   ^  S      c $P  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ! ,(   ^  S      c $J  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  ! ,(   ^  S      c $l`  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 @! ,(   ^  S      c $e  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 `! ,(   ^  S      c $$  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ! ,(   ^  S      c $ |  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ! ,(   ^  S      c $,  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ! ,(   ^  S      c $Т  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ! ,(   ^  S      c $k  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 "$ ,(  $ ^ $ S     $ c $p  0   " H $ 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  ", ,(  , ^ , S     , c $\  0   " H , 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 @"4 ,(  4 ^ 4 S     4 c $  0   " H 4 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 "D ,(  D ^ D S     D c $x  0   " H D 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 "L ,(  L ^ L S     L c $  0   " H L 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 "T ,(  T ^ T S     T c $E  0   " H T 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 "\ ,(  \ ^ \ S     \ c $  0   " H \ 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 #d ,(  d ^ d S     d c $  0   " H d 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  #l ,(  l ^ l S     l c $  0   " H l 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 `#| ,(  | ^ | S     | c $v  0   " H | 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 # ,(   ^  S      c $D  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 # ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 $ ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  $ ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 @$ ,(   ^  S      c $t  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 `$ ,(   ^  S      c $0  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 $ ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 $ ,(   ^  S      c $X  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 $ ,(   ^  S      c $h  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 % ,(   ^  S      c $@  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 @% ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 `% ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 % ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 % ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 % ,(   ^  S      c $4  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  &0 ,(  0 ^ 0 S     0 c $  0   " H 0 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 @&8 ,(  8 ^ 8 S     8 c $  0   " H 8 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 `&@ ,(  @ ^ @ S     @ c $  0   " H @ 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 &X ,(  X ^ X S     X c $  0   " H X 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 &` ,(  ` ^ ` S     ` c $L  0   " H ` 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 'h ,(  h ^ h S     h c $&  0   " H h 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 @'x ,(  x ^ x S     x c $  0   " H x 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 `' ,(   ^  S      c $P!  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ' ,(   ^  S      c $h,  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ( ,(   ^  S      c $1  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ( ,(   ^  S      c $7  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ( ,(   ^  S      c $B  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ( ,(   ^  S      c $ =  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ) ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  ) ,(   ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ) ,(   ^   S       c $$H  0   " H   0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 *(,(  (^ ( S     ( c $_  0   " H ( 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 P*<,(  <^ < S     < c $  0   " H < 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c  0 *T,(  T^ T S     T c $X  0   " H T 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c  0 *\,(  \^ \ S     \ c $  0   " H \ 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c  0 *d,(  d^ d S     d c $@  0   " H d 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c  0 +l,(  l^ l S     l c $0  0   " H l 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c  0  +t,(  t^ t S     t c $I  0   " H t 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 @+|,(  |^ | S     | c $@c  0   " H | 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 +,(  ^  S      c $X  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 +,(  ^  S      c $#  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 +,(  ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 +,(  ^  S      c $K  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 @,,(  ^  S      c $P  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c 0 `,,(  ^  S      c $L  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ,,(  ^  S      c $g  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ,,(  ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 ,,(  ^  S      c $Ƞ  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 -,(  ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0  -,(  ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 @- ,(   ^   S       c $  0   " H   0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 -$,(  $^ $ S     $ c $  0   " H $ 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 -,,(  ,^ , S     , c $"  0   " H , 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c 0 @.L,(  L^ L S     L c $?  0   " H L 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c" 0 .d,(  d^ d S     d c $  0   " H d 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c# 0 .l,(  l^ l S      l c $   0    " H l 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c& 0 @0,(  ^  S      c $W  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c' 0 `0,(  ^  S      c $t  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c) 0 0,(  ^  S       c $0g  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c* 0 0,(  ^  S      c $l 0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c+ 0 0,(  ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c, 0 1,(  ^  S      c $4  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c- 0  1,(  ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c. 0 @1 ,(   ^   S       c $h  0   " H   0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c/ 0 `1,(  ^  S       c $   0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c0 0 1,(  ^  S       c $  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c1 0 1$,(  $^ $ S      $ c $  0    " H $ 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c2 0 14,(  4^ 4 S      4 c $tM  0    " H 4 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c3 0  2D,(  D^ D S      D c $0j  0    " H D 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c4 0 @2L,(  L^ L S      L c $  0    " H L 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c5 0 `2T,(  T^ T S      T c $  0    " H T 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c6 0 2`,(  `^ ` S      ` c $D  0    " H ` 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c7 0 2h,(  h^ h S      h c $d7  0    " H h 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c8 0 2p,(  p^ p S      p c $  0    " H p 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c9 0 2x,(  x^ x S      x c $  0    " H x 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c: 0 3,(  ^  S       c $X  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c; 0 03,(  ^  S       c $Ե  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c< 0 P3,(  ^  S       c $  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c= 0 p3,(  ^  S       c $M  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c> 0 3,(  ^  S       c $v  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c? 0 3,(  ^  S    (   c $=(  0  (  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c@ 0 3,(  ^  S       c $D  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cA 0 3,(  ^  S       c $t  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cB 0  4,(  ^  S    (   c $(  0  (  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cC 0 @4,(  ^  S       c $  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cD 0 `4,(  ^  S       c $  0    " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cE 0 4,(  ^  S      c $$;  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3cF 0 4,(  ^  S      c $m  0   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3cG 0 4,(  ^  S    (   c $x#(  0  (  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3cH 0  5,(  ^  S      c $  0   " H  0޽h ? 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+  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c[ 0 7,(  ^  S    3   c $@3  0  3  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c\ 0 7,(  ^  S    3   c $_3  0  3  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c] 0 7,(  ^  S    3   c $ x3  0  3  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c^ 0 8,(  ^  S    +   c $+  0  +  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3c_ 0 08,(  ^  S    3   c $$3  0  3  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c` 0 P8,(  ^  S    7   c $:7  0  7  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}ca 0 p8,(  ^  S    n  c $ 7  0  n " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cb 0 8,(  ^  S    7   c $n 0  7  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cc 0 8,(  ^  S    3   c $@I3  0  3  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3cd 0 8,(  ^  S    3   c $P3  0  3  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3ce 0 9,(  ^  S    7   c $p7  0  7  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3cf 0 09,(  ^  S    7   c $`l7  0  7  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cg 0 P9,(  ^  S    7   c $7  0  7  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}ch 0 p9,(  ^  S    7   c $x7  0  7  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}ci 0 9 ,(   ^   S    7    c $7  0  7  " H   0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cj 0 9(,(  (^ ( S    7  ( c $7  0  7  " H ( 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}ck 0 90,(  0^ 0 S    7  0 c $l7  0  7  " H 0 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cl 0 :<,(  <^ < S    G  < c $ G  0  G  " H < 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cm 0  :D,(  D^ D S    G  D c $7G  0  G  " H D 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cq 0 :d,(  d^ d S    G  d c $G  0  G  " H d 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cr 0 :l,(  l^ l S    G  l c $TG  0  G  " H l 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cs 0 :t,(  t^ t S    G  t c $pG  0  n " H t 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}ct 0 ;|,(  |^ | S    G  | c $G  0  G  " H | 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cu 0  ;,(  ^  S    G   c $G  0  G  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cv 0 @;,(  ^  S    Q   c $` Q  0  Q  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cw 0 `;,(  ^  S    G   c $(G  0  G  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.3cx 0 ;,(  ^  S    Q   c $`$Q  0  Q  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cy 0 ;,(  ^  S    Q   c $AQ  0  Q  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}cz 0 ;,(  ^  S    Q   c $`Q  0  Q  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c{ 0 ;,(  ^  S    Q   c $0|Q  0  Q  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c| 0 <,(  ^  S    G   c $G  0  G  " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.}c} 0  <,(  ^  S    Q   c $`Q  0  Q  " H  0޽h ? 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